Wet weather could tamp down turnout in Michigan and Wisconsin – Washington Examiner
On Election Day, a cold front is expected to bring rain to the crucial battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin, which could affect voter turnout. While severe weather is not anticipated, rain will spread across Michigan throughout the day, particularly in the west near Grand Rapids, with evening rain in Detroit. Wisconsin will see rain taper off by midday in Madison and in the afternoon in Milwaukee, with unseasonably warm temperatures in the 60s and 70s reported. In contrast, other Eastern swing states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania will experience dry and warm conditions, while states in the West, such as Arizona and Nevada, will face cooler but dry weather. Meanwhile, heavy snowfall is predicted in the Rocky Mountains, and additional rain in the South could raise the risk of flash flooding. Research suggests that weather conditions can influence voter turnout, especially in tightly contested elections, which is particularly pertinent given the close nature of the upcoming presidential race.
Wet weather could tamp down turnout in Michigan and Wisconsin
While severe weather is not expected to affect the presidential election, a cold front is making its way across the nation’s midsection, bringing rain to two battleground states on Election Day.
Rain is expected in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin as the front progresses eastward. It will move into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys by nightfall.
In Wisconsin, rain is expected to wind down around midday in Madison and during the afternoon in Milwaukee. Temperatures will be in the 60s, which is unseasonably warm for this time of year.
In Michigan, rain will cover the state from west to east throughout the day. In the western portion of the state near Grand Rapids, it will rain most of the day. In Detroit, rain is expected in the evening. It will be unseasonably warm out ahead of the cold front, with highs around 70 in wetter West Michigan and well into the 70s in Detroit.
In the other Eastern swing states of Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, dry and unseasonably warm weather will be present.
In the Western swing states of Arizona and Nevada, the weather will be chilly for desert standards but free of rain.
In non-swing states, heavy snow is forecasted in the Rocky Mountains from Montana to Colorado. Winter weather alerts have been issued in those regions.
Alongside Wisconsin, some states in the South, including Louisiana, Eastern Texas, and Arkansas, are expected to get heavy rain along the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys, which could bring flash flooding and approximately 2 inches to 4 inches of rain between Louisiana and southern Indiana.
Some studies have shown that weather can, in fact, influence voter turnout and even voting behavior in presidential elections. Researchers have said bad weather has a marginal impact on voter turnout, but those marginal impacts could be much more significant in a very close race, as the 2024 presidential race is expected to be.
For every centimeter of rainfall, same-day voter turnout can decrease by as much as 0.95 points, according to research from a 2023 analysis of voter turnout and rain. However, the negative effects of rain can be mitigated by alternative voting methods such as mail-in ballots and early voting, according to another study conducted this year.
“The impact weather has on voting is not as significant or impactful as it once was because so many people are now voting early in person or by mail,” Evan Myers, senior vice president at AccuWeather and an expert on election weather, told USA Today. “A majority of people still vote on Election Day, but there are a lot more people voting early.”
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