There are several online platforms people can use to place wagers on elections and other political drama, including PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair. Recently, the popular brokerage Robinhood began offering political betting.

Users trade shares of a market, such as a market for the presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Each share is priced based on bets for and against it on a scale from $0.00 to $1. Those share prices also imply probability. So, if a Harris share is valued at 50 cents, it implies she has a 50% chance of winning the presidency.

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So, to bet on Harris, a bettor could buy shares for her victory at 50 cents. If she won, the bettor would get $1 for each share, meaning a 50-cent return on investment for every share.

While 50 cents might not seem like a lot, it adds up if a lot of shares are purchased. For example, if someone buys 3,000 shares of Harris winning at 50 cents per share, it would cost $1,500. However, if Harris ends up winning, that gambler would be awarded $3,000.

President

Most betting markets give Trump an edge. Notably, Trump supporters, such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have advertised some of the prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, in hopes of people pushing Trump’s shares higher. Users can swing the odds in markets with low trading volume by buying large numbers of shares, changing the implied odds.

With hours until polls close, Polymarket’s $3.3 billion presidential election winner market gives Trump 61.1% odds of winning the election. Harris has a 39% chance of winning the White House, according to the platform. Trump’s odds peaked in July, when he was still running against President Joe Biden, at over 70%.

Harris and Trump were neck-and-neck on Kalshi just a couple of days ago, but since then, Trump has pulled away and now has implied 57% odds of winning on that platform, with Harris’s shot sitting at about 43%.

PredictIt, which has been around since 2014, shows a closer race. It has shares of Trump winning selling for 54 cents, while Harris shares can be purchased for 52 cents apiece. Late last week, Harris was leading Trump on the platform.

Senate

Republicans look poised to recapture control of the Senate for the first time since 2021, according to the prediction markets.

Polymarket shows Democrats have a mere 18% chance of holding the Senate, while political gamblers on Kalshi are giving Republicans 84% odds of taking it.

Republicans only need to pick up two Senate seats to win the upper chamber. Republicans are poised to take the West Virginia seat held by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, an independent who caucuses with Democrats. Polling out of Montana indicates the GOP will also flip that seat from Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (Polymarket shows an 84% chance of Republicans winning that seat).

House

When it comes to the House, political gamblers anticipate it to be much closer.

Polymarket gives Democrats about a 53% chance to win control of the lower chamber, while Kalshi gives Republicans just a 1-point edge, although that edge has flipped back and forth.

Everything else

There are other markets of interest on the various platforms. For instance, while Trump is favored to win the presidency on Polymarket, users there foresee a 73% chance that Harris will win the popular vote.

Many analysts consider Pennsylvania the most important state for Harris or Trump to win, one that might be the deciding factor in the battle for Electoral College votes. Kalshi even puts the odds at nearly 80% that whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania will also win the national contest.

As Pennsylvania wraps up voting, Polymarket gives Trump 57% overall odds of beating Harris in the Keystone State, while Kalshi puts the former president’s odds at 54%.

PredictIt users also think Republican Bernie Moreno will overcome Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) incumbent support and flip another seat into the Republican column, with shares of Moreno going for 67 cents.

Also of note, the publicly traded social media company owned by Trump has had a rollercoaster day, which could indicate whether Wall Street traders expect him to win. At one point, shares of his company were up more than 18%, but then the company crashed in the afternoon, resulting in trading halts. The stock pared back some of the losses but still closed down 1%.