BREAKING- NYT Chief Political Analyst: ‘We Consider Trump Likely to Win Presidency’
As of 11 p.m. ET, The New York Times reports that Donald Trump has an 89% likelihood of winning both the Electoral College and the 2024 presidential election. Chief political analyst Nate Cohn indicates that Trump has a strong advantage in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which are crucial for his success. Current vote counts show Trump leading narrowly, which has shifted expectations from a “leaning Trump” to a more definitive likelihood of victory.
Trump has a 68% chance of winning Michigan, a 67% chance in Pennsylvania, and a 66% chance in Wisconsin. If these trends continue, he may even secure the national popular vote, which could indicate strong overall performance. Other swing states also favor Trump by a significant margin, though Nevada remains an outlier. The dynamics suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris is facing significant challenges as the election results unfold.
The New York Times thinks, as of 11 p.m. ET, that Donald Trump is 89 percent likely to win the Electoral College and the 2024 election.
“For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency,” Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote.
Cohn said, Trump “has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three.
“There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead.”
That’s up from earlier in the night, when the race was only “leaning Trump.”
The New York Times needle is currently predicting both an electoral college victory and a popular vote win for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/xjbtpgPRwS
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) November 6, 2024
Each of those three states — which Harris likely needs to sweep in the Times’ model to have a chance at the White House — show over a two-thirds chance of landing in Trump’s lap.
All of those three went for President Joe Biden during the 2020 election.
While most experts said that it might take over 24 hours for the vote to shake out, if the models are accurate, we might see calls before then.
In Michigan, which has 15 electoral votes, Trump has a 68 percent chance of winning, as per the model. In Pennsylvania — the big prize of the evening, with 19 electoral votes — he has a 67 percent chance of winning. In Wisconsin, he has a 66 percent chance of winning.
In addition, Cohn previously said that the model showed Trump with an outside chance of winning the national popular vote.
While that wouldn’t account for anything, it would be a positive sign of Trump’s overperformance if he were able to win the popular vote, as well.
“The race for the national popular vote is a true tossup,” Cohn noted.
“Trump has run well all over the country. If that trend continues in California and New York, where the vote count is still early, there’s a distinct chance he could win it.”
As for the other swing states, all of them are over 75 percent Trump in the Times’ model except for Nevada — which likely wouldn’t matter if Trump takes one of the “blue wall” states and which has yet to begin counting votes.
But one thing is for certain, no matter what happens there: Harris is in deep trouble with all of the states in the contiguous 48 states closed.
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