How A Strong Ground Game Helped Trump Flip Michigan Red

Former President Donald Trump won Michigan in Tuesday’s landslide election, flipping the state red. Grassroots groups were on the ground, working tirelessly to boost conservative turnout. 

The race in Michigan was razor tight, with Trump ultimately winning by 49.7 percent to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48.3 percent according to The New York Times. As The Federalist reported, Trump gained unusual support from Muslims in the state, which went blue in 2020.  

“Everyone laughed when we said we wanted to flip MI again,” said Ashley Hayek, executive director of America First Works, to The Federalist. 

Trump made significant gains in the state since 2020 — even in places where he lost again.

Trump lost Michigan by more than 154,000 votes in 2020. The Detroit metro area is the state’s most populous region, and it includes Wayne County — home to the city itself, along with more suburban Macomb and Oakland counties.

In 2020, Trump lost Wayne County with 30.3 percent (more than 264,500 votes), alongside Oakland County with 42.2 percent (nearly 326,000 votes). But he won Macomb County that cycle with 53.4 percent (more than 263,000 votes).

Trump made notable gains this year. He still lost Wayne County, but this time with 33.6 percent (more than 288,700 votes), according to the unofficial returns. He also lost Oakland County, but increased to 43.7 percent (more than 337,500 votes). Trump won Macomb County by even more, with 55.8 percent (more than 284,000 votes).

The Michigan Ground Game

“In 2023 was when there were efforts to get people to vote by mail or to vote early, but it seemed to only move Election Day voters and not expand the base,” Hayek said. “We were focusing on no and low propensity voters. That was our number one priority.”

Hayek said AFW was one of few groups on the ground in Michigan. It was working near Detroit in Macomb County, Oakland County, and Wayne County, which contains the city along with majority-Arab Dearborn and Hamtramck.

The group hired a team of canvassers to cover the Detroit area, which mainly focused on the suburban Macomb and Oakland counties. Hayek said Harris had a sizable lead in Oakland County as of September, but as the election neared, Trump gained due to issues of border security and the economy.

Hayek said AFW hired close to 20 Arab-American canvassers from Dearborn. As The Federalist previously reported, Trump won the usually-Democrat area.

In Dearborn, canvassers knocked more than 37,100 doors, yielding more than 4,800 early and absentee votes, according to AFW data supplied by Hayek. The group also texted more than 6,500, yielding more than 2,200 votes. While Trump lost Dearborn by more than 17,400 in 2020, he was ahead by 2,600 votes going into Election Day.

The group’s efforts also put Trump ahead by more than 1,400 votes in nearby Dearborn Heights by Election Day, and greatly narrowed the margin he was behind in nearby Hamtramck, according to the AFW data.

Hayek also said there were “boots on the ground” in Kent County, which contains Grand Rapids, and Saginaw County. The city of Saginaw, which voted for Trump in 2016 but went for Biden in 2020, flipped back to red this election. It is known as an election bellwether in the state. 

Patrice Johnson, chair of Michigan Fair Elections, told The Federalist she thought AFW’s ballot chasing efforts were effective. She said her group had spoken with the group’s lawyers, and she called them “great, very professional.”

Johnson said while her group did not engage in ballot chasing specifically, it did have “a couple hundred” volunteers as part of its “soles to the rolls” get-out-the-vote efforts.

“We knocked on doors to verify the data that we see on the voter rolls. And so we have relationships with a lot of these folks,” Johnson said. “We knock on the doors and then also tell them, ‘Is there anybody else here in the house that’s not registered to vote,’ or we could also say ‘It’s really important, and are you set to vote?”

She said her group encouraged close to 6,300 low-propensity voters in western Michigan to make their voices heard. Johnson also said MFE worked to bolster the integrity of the system itself. It recruited more than 1,000 Detroit poll inspectors, though the city did not accept them all.

“It made a difference because that situation in Detroit went very well,” she said.

MFE also tried to address outdated voter registrations by sending 67,500 letters to former residents who are still on the rolls in Michigan but have since registered to vote in their new states. The mailings included forms allowing the non-residents to request removal from Michigan’s rolls.

“They were frustrated because they said they had tried,” Johnson said. “It’s easy to get on the rolls, but it’s hard to get off.”

A National Strategy

Campaigns usually hire one canvassing firm, according to Hayek, but AFW hired three different firms in Michigan alone. She said the group took similar measures across the country, hoping to match canvassers to each community and ensure accountability.

“We did it early so we could walk in a lower rate, we could get more doors, and then we could hire who we believed were the best people based on the region,” Hayek said. 

She said the group enforced a zero-tolerance policy for canvassers that lied about door knocking. Since AFW hired multiple firms, it could report problematic canvassers to ensure they don’t continue to work in the field.

“There’s just so much more transparency and accountability,” Hayek said. “We had three different firms operating in Arizona, and we cut the universes appropriately. But that’s what, I think, made it more competitive.”

Merissa Hamilton, with the Strong Communities Foundation of Arizona, told The Federalist she has been coordinating with an AFW coalition to learn about similar conservative ground game strategies across the country.

“We learn from other states as to what they were doing, what they were finding was working,” Hamilton said. “I think it made a big difference, being able to have that coordination and also a little bit of friendly competition.”

After last week’s election, Trump won Arizona after it went for President Joe Biden in 2020. Republicans also took Arizona’s state House and Senate, which Hamilton attributed to conservative efforts on the ground. She also applauded other victories in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Logan Washburn is a staff writer covering election integrity. He graduated from Hillsdale College, served as Christopher Rufo’s editorial assistant, and has bylines in The Wall Street Journal, The Tennessean, and The Daily Caller. Logan is originally from Central Oregon but now lives in rural Michigan.