There are only two states with gubernatorial races next November: New Jersey and Virginia. Both parties will have their work cut out for them in each race, but Republicans hope to ride the coattails of their 2024 success — and some missteps from their Democratic counterparts — to carry them across the finish line. 

Here’s what to watch in each state: 

Virginia: Party nominees all but determined in what is expected to be a history-making race

Regardless of what happens in the Virginia governor’s race, the state appears set to make history with its 2025 elections. 

Although primaries have not yet been decided, one candidate from each party has already emerged as the clear front-runner: outgoing Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Depending on who wins, the state would elect its first female governor — and if Earle-Sears wins, she’d be Virginia’s first black female governor.

The race has been deemed a tossup by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, but historical trends show early signs of promise for Democrats. 

In all but one cycle in the last 50 years, Virginia’s governor’s mansion has been won by the party opposite of the one inside the White House — typically acting as a form of backlash to the current presidential administration. With Trump’s return in January, that could spell good news for Democrats, who are hoping to flip the seat back to blue after Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) won in 2021. 

However, Republicans have also seen recent breakthroughs in the state since Youngkin’s win. While President Joe Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020, Harris only managed to win the state by just under 6 points — indicating some momentum for Republicans heading into the next cycle.

New Jersey: Crowded primaries to succeed term-limited Phil Murphy

Roughly a dozen candidates from both parties have already launched their bids to replace Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ), who is stepping down from office because state law blocks him from running for another term. 

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has given the race an initial “lean-Democrat” rating, giving the party an early advantage to holding the seat next November. However, that doesn’t mean the party won’t have challenges — especially with recent controversy at different levels in the state.

Whoever the Democratic nominee is will need to deal with the fallout of former Sen. Bob Menendez’s indictment, who resigned after he was charged with allegedly accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes “to use his official position to protect and enrich them and to benefit the Government of Egypt.”

Meanwhile, Democratic operative George Norcross faces corruption charges for allegedly conspiring to illegally obtain waterfront property rights, collecting millions of dollars in government tax credits, and seeking to influence and control public officials. 

At the same time, Democrats must contend with Vice President Kamala Harris’s poor showing in the 2024 presidential election, when she had the worst numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in New Jersey since 1992. 

The Democrats who have already declared their bids include Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney, and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller.

On the Republican side, there could be contention between the nominee and President-elect Donald Trump. Former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is taking a second stab at the governor’s mansion after narrowly losing to Murphy in 2021 by just 3 percentage points. 

But, at the time of that campaign, Ciattarelli was careful to keep Trump at arm’s length while acknowledging President Joe Biden defeated him in the 2020 presidential election. There was even one point when Ciatterelli called Trump a “charlatan” when he first ran for president in 2015. 

Now, Ciatterelli will be faced with either massaging his point of view to accept Trump, who has now become the center of the Republican Party, or possibly deal with the president-elect’s ire if he chooses to distance himself once again. 

Other Republicans who have jumped into the GOP primary include Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former state Sen. Ed Durr, real estate broker Robert Canfield, and former Burlington City Mayor Jim Fazzone.