The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 flight left Baku, Azerbaijan, on Wednesday and was slated to land in Grozny, Russia. Instead, the plane crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan. While investigators are still examining the cause of the crash, this comes amid violence at the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Ukraine-Russia borders.

Osprey Flight Solutions is an aviation security firm that said it warned airlines the Azerbaijan Airlines flight could have been shot down by Russia. Its chief security officer, Matt Borie, detailed to the Wall Street Journal the evidence that led his firm to believe the plane was attacked.

“Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicates the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of antiaircraft fire,” Borie said.

Verified social media videos show the plane sharply descending and then somewhat regaining control until crashing to the ground.

Since September 2023, Osprey has forecast an 80% risk rating for Azerbaijan. At the time, the firm only cited the country’s clashes with Armenia. According to Osprey, its “forecast accuracy through 2023 and into 2024 is 98%.”

Meanwhile, Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, agreed with Osprey that Russia was the cause of the crash. Kovalenko posted photos from inside the plane that showed holes in the walls and even in the life vests. According to Kovalenko, Russia will try to cover up the evidence.

“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives,” Kovalenko wrote. “In one word — Russia.”

However, other officials are citing bad weather as the cause of the crash.

“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said of the crash.

Among the passengers, there were 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyz nationals. Some nine Russians were transported to Moscow to receive treatment for their injuries per the country’s Emergencies Ministry. Flags across Azerbaijan were lowered to half-staff on Thursday to honor the victims.