Senate Republicans in the 2024 election cycle won a solid 53-47 majority, recapturing control after four years in the minority. Across the Capitol, House Republicans held the majority — if barely, with what’s set to be a 220-215 advantage once a smattering of special elections is held to fill vacant seats that are strongly red. And, of course, President Donald Trump is back wielding power, in his second, nonconsecutive term.

Democrats faced a similar Republican trifecta in the aftermath of the 2004 elections, when reelected GOP President George W. Bush had a fully Republican Congress to work with. Soon after, though, Democrats roared back, winning both House and Senate control in the 2006 midterm elections.

Now, heading into the 2026 election cycle, Republicans should be the ones watching their political backs. After all, since the direct election of senators began in 1913, during 17 of 27 midterm election cycles, one party won four or more Senate seats. That would seemingly bode well for Democrats, because the out-of-power party is often the winner of the midterm elections, to varying degrees.

But over the last 20 years, the national political scene has calcified in a way that would shock 20th-century observers. There’s considerably less crossover voting than there used to be, in which a state would elect a president of one party and a senator or senators of the other. The result is that Democrats are staring at a very difficult hill to climb in their bid to reclaim the Senate majority.

The new reality of a map can be seen by looking back just 22 years, in Bush’s first term in office. Republicans had control of the 2002-2004 Senate, 51-49, but of those 49 Democrats, 19 were elected in states that have not a single Democratic senator today. That includes some of the nation’s most Republican states, which a Democratic presidential candidate has no hope of carrying. Back then, Democrats held both Senate seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

Now, following the Republican success in November 2024, there is not a single Democratic senator in any state that former President Joe Biden didn’t win in 2020, when Biden beat Trump and relegated him to what would be four years as a private citizen between presidential terms.

The situation is roughly similar for Republicans. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is the only GOP senator in a state that Trump didn’t win in 2024. However, because of the consistent Republican Senate advantage in several smaller-population states, at the moment, Republicans appear to have a narrow but consistent majority.

Some reasons for Senate Democratic optimism

Yet all is not lost for Senate Democrats, thanks to Trump’s decisions after his Nov. 5 win, which opens up a narrow window of hope for Democrats.

Democrats need to make inroads in the red states to retake the Senate majority in 2026. Another trend suggests two specific seats that present such an opportunity.

The 2026 Democratic Senate nominees in Ohio and Florida will not face elected incumbents, but appointee senators. The election of Vice President JD Vance, after less than two years as a GOP senator from Ohio, led to the appointment of a replacement. Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) chose his six-year understudy, former Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, for the open Senate seat.

The same Republican senator-replacement process played out in Florida, with Trump’s selection of former Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) chose former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody as Rubio’s replacement.

Both Husted and Moody will face voters in 2026 to complete the final two years of their predecessors’ terms. Historically, though, there is a wide chasm in the political success rate between the elected and appointed senators.

Over the last 65 years, 76 senators were originally appointed to their positions due to a vacancy. Among them are 11 current senators.

Some appointed senators have no trouble eventually winning full, six-year terms. That was the case with Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY) after he joined the Senate by appointment in 2007. Prominent predecessors include the late Vice President Walter Mondale, a Minnesota Democrat appointed to the Senate in 1964. Former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, a Maine Democrat, first got to the chamber by appointment in 1980.

However, being appointed to the Senate comes with a real challenge — these lawmakers are vastly more likely to lose a reelection run. During those past 6 1/2 decades, 28 of 76, or 37%, went on to win a term on their own. That’s hardly an impressive electoral track record.

Nor is it because they were just placeholders who did not run in the next election. Twenty-five lost a reelection bid, with eight of them failing in primaries.

The comparison with elected senators highlights the difficulty their appointed brethren face in winning a subsequent race. Senate incumbents are incredibly successful at winning reelection. While three senators lost 2024 reelection bids, that still represents an 86% reelection rate. There hasn’t been an election since 1980 when the reelection rate dropped below 75%. In 2022, every incumbent won. Replacements are a different breed.

Those trends offer a glimmer of hope to Senate Democrats, but not much more. Both Florida and Ohio have moved quickly away from the Democratic Party, after being quintessential swing states until fairly recently. Of the two, Ohio offers the better shot for Democrats, particularly if one of the 2024 Senate Democratic losers, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, mounts a 2026 comeback bid. Brown significantly outperformed the Democratic nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris, last fall in Ohio.

Democrats looking to retake the Senate in 2026 have a significant challenge ahead. But two appointed senators, with the significant failure rate of those appointees, might be the helping hand that they need to climb back into power.

Joshua Spivak is a senior research fellow at Berkeley Law’s California Constitution Center and a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institution for Government Reform at Wagner College. He is the author of Recall Elections: From Alexander Hamilton to Gavin Newsom.