For months, the race has been close, with former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger with a slight lead. But a new survey shared with Secrets on Monday showed that Earle-Sears has caught up.

The poll sponsored by the Northern Virginia Republican Business Forum showed support for both candidates at 40%, though the race is just beginning.

Virginia holds its big political elections in the off-year, a year after the presidential election. The commonwealth bars governors from serving back-to-back terms, effectively limiting them to one four-year term.

Earle-Sears and Spanberger have made no secret of their plans to run for the top spot, and Republicans and Democrats appear eager and ready to give them a clear path to the nomination. 

Recent surveys have shown that the gubernatorial race has been close for months and that Youngkin and President Donald Trump could play an outsize role.

In a big plus for Earle-Sears, Youngkin has a 59% approval rating in the new poll, near his all-time high. He has consistently shown in polls to be a governor voters like.

His policies, especially cutting taxes, are also popular in the commonwealth, and Earle-Sears’s popularity is higher due to her support for them.

For example, Youngkin has proposed cutting the car tax, an issue Virginians are very familiar with.

The survey said 75% support his “working-class car tax credit plan to provide additional car tax relief to 2.4 million Virginians.”

And, the survey added, half support it even after hearing about a Democratic alternative in a one-time tax rebate.

Among voters who support cutting taxes as Youngkin has proposed, Earle-Sears leads 49%-32%.

A key Virginia Republican consultant told Secrets, “Voters are telling us that they like what he’s done and they want more of it, and Winsome Earle-Sears is going to benefit from that because, as the governor has said, she has been a steadfast governing partner this entire time. They ran together in 2021. They’ve governed together ever since, and the policies that are working for Virginians are as much her responsibility as they are his.”

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What’s more, the consultant said, the poll suggests that taxes can and will be a driving issue in the November election, especially the proposal to cut the car tax, an issue that helped former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore win in 1997 by a huge 13-point margin.

“It’s common sense,” the consultant said, adding, “If you’re a Virginian and you own a car, you know that this is the most hated tax that you have. And you have one party saying we should provide your release from that car tax. And you have another party saying Virginians don’t really need it, and they kind of poo-poo it actually. They should have to answer for that. And we are very confident that our position on this issue aligns with the voters in Virginia. And Democrats are going to have to answer to that when they go to the ballot box next November.”