Michigan’s Midterms Could Determine Direction Of National Politics

Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement announcement last month further solidifies Michigan as the most important state in the country, at least politically, for the next two years.

Michigan has long been a swing state, not just federally but internally. Historically, the state’s political pendulum has swung at 8-year intervals. The 2010 swing gave Republicans full control over state government, highlighted by the passage of right-to-work, the stabilization of Michigan’s population after several decades of decline, and 600,000 new jobs.

The 2018 swing gave the state Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the nation’s most comprehensive COVID business shutdowns, and an “independent” redistricting commission. Under the commission’s legislative boundaries, later found by the courts to have been racially gerrymandered, Democrats won narrow legislative majorities in 2022 that repealed right-to-work, incinerated education accountability, and enacted a weather-dependent “net-zero” energy regime.

Michigan’s role in national politics is not merely to serve as a bellwether for presidential elections. Unions in the state have long been among America’s most powerful; money harvested from Michigan’s workers is regularly deployed beyond our borders. And with Michigan’s accessible ballot initiative process, terrible left-wing policies can be tested and passed here before being inflicted on redder states like Arizona and Montana. Rewiring Michigan in a direction that advances conservatism and federalism benefits America broadly.

Here is the Michigan ballot in 2026:

• Open U.S. Senate seat. Peters won his 2020 reelection by less than 2 percent. Elissa Slotkin won last year’s Senate vacancy by 0.3 percent. Both party primaries will shape up as expensive battle royales for this open seat.

• Three competitive U.S. House races. Reps. Tom Barrett (R), Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) and John James (R) all won with less than 51.3 percent of the vote last year.

• Governor. Whitmer is term limited. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has already announced for the Democratic nomination, while Senate Republican Leader Aric Nesbitt and former Attorney General Mike Cox are in the GOP race. Interestingly, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has opted to run as an independent rather than a Democrat. He will get substantial money from Southeast Michigan business leaders, but he’ll draw far more of his votes from Democrats than Republicans.

• Attorney General. Democrat Dana Nessel also faces a term limit, and she is expected to run for U.S. Senate.

• Secretary of State. Benson is termed out and running for governor.

• Two Michigan Supreme Court races. Progressives have a 6-1 effective majority on the court. Democrat Megan Cavanaugh and nominal Republican Elizabeth Clement are up next year.

• Michigan Senate. All members’ four-year terms are up next year, and 15 of the 38 cannot run again under Michigan’s term limits law. Democrats have a 19-18 majority, with one competitive seat open pending a special election Whitmer has yet to call. Either party could win the majority in 2026.

• Michigan House. All 110 members are up next year. Republicans won a 58-52 majority last November; Democrats had a 56-54 majority the preceding two years. Either party could win the majority in 2026.

• Constitutional convention. The Michigan Constitution of 1963 stipulates that voters be asked on a general election ballot every 16 years whether a convention should be called to draft a new state constitution. Such a question has been overwhelmingly defeated the previous three times. But given the out-of-state and foreign-funded amendments recently added to the constitution (dealing with abortion, cannabis and elections), some are starting to evaluate the pros and cons of attempting to fix those issues via a convention as opposed to an individual initiative strategy.

• Referenda on paid sick leave and minimum/tipped wage laws. In 2018, union front groups submitted two initiatives to the Legislature for an onerous paid sick leave regime and a substantial minimum wage increase that also eliminated the tipped wage credit for restaurant workers. Legislative Republicans enacted the initiatives into law that spring to keep them off the November ballot but returned in December to amend those laws. Last year, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled that the procedure was unconstitutional and ordered those laws to take effect February 20. The law in its current form will cause 20% of Michigan restaurants to close, resulting in 60,000 lost jobs, according to the Michigan Restaurant and Lodging Association. Legislators from both parties have made a new effort to sand off the rough edges of the 2018 language, but unions are threatening to collect signatures for referenda in November 2026 to roll back any changes. (Those changes would be suspended through the election if union interests collect enough signatures.)

• Other ballot initiatives. Among the ideas in circulation for potential 2026 ballot measures are a stronger photo ID requirement for voting, a proof-of-citizenship requirement for voter registration, ranked-choice voting, and stricter campaign contribution limits.

With all these offices and measures on the ballot next November, the range of outcomes for Michigan is wider than for any other state in the country.

If conservatives play this opportunity smartly and intentionally, Michigan can make quick progress toward becoming the Florida of the North.

But if we get this wrong, the state that gave America the automobile slips deeper into decline, and the progressive machine can turn more of its arsenal against redder states like Ohio, Missouri, and even Texas.

“Most important election ever” is an overused cliché, but the 2026 elections will be Michigan’s most consequential in a very long time. What happens here will have significant national implications.

The good news is that Michigan already has a permanent infrastructure to advance freedom and federalism. Anyone who cares about our country should commit time, energy, and treasure to join us on the front lines of the fight for Michigan.

David Guenthner is vice president of government affairs for the Mackinac Center, a free-market think tank based in Midland, Michigan. David moved to Michigan in 2018 following 11-1/2 successful years at the Texas Public Policy Foundation.