The Old Dominion is home to nearly 145,000 government workers who are at risk of job loss if Trump, Elon Musk‘s Department of Government Efficiency, and Office of Management and Budget chief Russell Vought succeed in dramatically shrinking the federal bureaucracy.

Only two other states or territories, California and the District of Columbia, have more government workers than Virginia. The commonwealth is also the state with the most federal contract awards with more than $106 billion in 2023.

But Virginia’s off-year elections, a bellwether race, will be the first moment voters will issue their electoral judgment on Washington. The primaries begin in June.

“President Trump’s efforts to shrink the federal government is going to have an immense impact on the governor’s race in Virginia this year. Not only are we talking about all the people who work for the federal government who wonder whether they’re going to stay employed,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “You also have all the people who are federal contractors or selling gasoline and food to people working in the federal government.

“All these people have to wonder what their future is going to look like if these plans to dramatically cut the federal government come to pass,” he said.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) is barred by state law from seeking a consecutive term, but his former running mate, now Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, is the leading Republican seeking the governor’s mansion, while former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is the leading Democrat.

Youngkin won office in 2021 as a political newcomer by running on backlash to Democratic leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic, with parental rights becoming a key issue. Republicans in the state are hoping for a reprise during this year’s gubernatorial race.

But if thousands of Virginians are out of work, Earle-Sears could face the arduous task of convincing voters to back her campaign, after Trump won office in part by running on economic discontent against former President Joe Biden.

“Angry voters are more likely to turn out than less angry voters, and right now that’s not going to help Republicans in the way that it did last November or back in 2021,” Farnsworth added.

However, Brian Kirwin, a Virginia political consultant with more than 20 years of experience, claimed that voters likely support getting rid of government waste.

“I don’t think Virginians think that the federal government should be a bloated, inefficient, expensive job program with a $30 plus trillion dollar deficit,” Kirwin said. “I think a more efficient government and a lower debt and a lower deficit would be what Virginians want.”

Matt Moran, executive director of Youngkin’s PAC Spirit of Virginia, pushed back against claims that Democrats would have an easier path to the governor’s mansion.

“The lieutenant governor is a fighter,” Moran said. “She’s been an indispensable part of the governor’s efforts to lower the cost of living and make Virginia the best state for business in the country. I’m sure Abigail Spanberger would like to distract Virginians from her real record as a radical progressive, but at some point, she’s going to run on what she’s actually going to do as governor.”

Trump’s administration offered more than 2 million federal employees a buyout program that allows those who accept to continue receiving benefits until September without having to come to the office. A federal judge paused the buyout offer after several unions sued last week.

The administration is also dealing with other legal challenges, including a different judge halting a federal freeze on grants and loans.

Yet in a notable moment, Trump issued an executive order on Tuesday with Musk in attendance that gives DOGE more power to slash federal spending.

The Virginia governor and Earle-Sears are staunch supporters of Trump and praised his efforts to trim federal workers and spending.

“It is not controversial at all to say and firmly believe that the federal government is bloated,” said Youngkin in an interview with 13News Now last month.

“In some parts of Virginia, there could be jobs lost, but the great thing is Virginia’s economy is soaring,” Youngkin also told the outlet. “We have 250,000 open positions across the commonwealth waiting for people to say ‘Yes, I will come work there.’”

Youngkin has also appeared at the White House as Trump signed an executive order barring transgender athletes from women’s sports.

Earle-Sears said Trump’s cost-cutting moves were no secret to voters who elected him in November.

“The president, if I’m understanding right, what he’s doing is he’s assessing,” Earle-Sears told the Associated Press. “He’s making an audit of who’s doing what, how are they doing it, where are they doing it and how are they supposed to be doing it? Is it according to the law? Can we make some savings?”

Virginia’s gubernatorial race is a bellwether that often foreshadows the midterm elections and presidential elections that follow it. With just one exception in recent times, Virginians have elected a governor who is a member of the political party opposing the president’s party.

Youngkin won his race a year after Biden was elected into office. The following year during the 2022 midterms Republicans snatched back control of the House. Two years later in 2024, Trump won the White House and Republicans flipped the Senate giving the GOP a governing trifecta.

But with Trump in the White House, Republicans in Virginia are playing defense to keep the governor’s mansion.

“In this gubernatorial election, the Democrats have the advantage to start, and that’s before any layoffs or any firing or any major disruption of the federal force,” said David Ramadan, a former Republican state delegate in Virginia and professor at the Schar School at George Mason University who stressed the statewide impact of any cuts. “It’s directly in Northern Virginia but once Northern Virginia’s economy is affected, the rest of Virginia’s economy is affected because Northern Virginia is the economic hub. It’s the tax base that fuels the rest of the Commonwealth.”

J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, also pointed out that other parts of the state, including Richmond and Virginia Beach, could be negatively harmed by the cuts to the federal government and the fallout among contractors and shipbuilders.

“If people like Russell Vought in the Trump administration want to beat up on federal workers … I’m sure for a certain part of their base that they kind of want to play to that,” he continued. “But it also does have real-world electoral consequences as well. So it really would put Winsome Sears in a tough place.”

A survey from the Northern Virginia Republican Business Forum late last month showed the race between the two women in a dead heat at 40%, with 15% undecided and 5% choosing someone else.

But Spanberger, a former CIA officer who represented the 7th Congressional District, has already begun to slam Republicans over the Trump administration’s efforts to slash the workforce.

“Virginia is home to more than 140,000 federal employees, so attacks on career public servants and the very functioning of our federal government are attacks on Virginians,” Spanberger said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “Not only have I heard from Virginians who are concerned about losing their jobs and ability to care for their families, but I’ve also heard from small business owners, contractors, and business leaders who are worried about what this chaos means for our Commonwealth’s economy.

“Virginians deserve leaders who are not afraid to stand up for our economy,” she said.

Lawmakers in Virginia have attempted to assuage the fears surrounding the buyout program and Trump’s efforts to transform the government.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) initially urged federal employees not to take the offer before the program was paused. “I’m relieved to see a federal judge temporarily block the Trump Administration’s sham buyout offer. The Administration has no clear authority to offer this deal,” Kaine said in a statement later.

Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) praised Musk’s “impressive” track record in a letter to constituents.

“That said, I share your concerns regarding potential conflicts of interest and overreach,” he also wrote. “Protecting the personal information of Americans is a fundamental responsibility, and any breach of privacy is alarming. The prospect of private individuals or companies having unfettered access to sensitive data raises critical questions about accountability, oversight, and the safeguarding of our citizens’ rights.”

State Democratic House Speaker Don Scott launched the bipartisan Emergency Committee on the Impacts of Federal Workforce and Funding Reductions to help the commonwealth recover from the Trump administration’s efforts to transform the federal government.

In an email to constituents on Monday, Pat Herrity, a Republican candidate for lieutenant governor and the sole Republican on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, said he backed trimming the federal workforce but also offered resources to those who could soon be looking for a job.

“I fully agree with the need to reduce the size and scope of the federal government,” Herrity wrote.

Kirwin, the Republican strategist, claimed that Spanberger could be hobbled by her past work as a lawmaker in Washington.

“If it’s Sears vs. Spanberger you’ve got a lieutenant governor in Virginia government, which has very high approval ratings under Gov. Youngkin, versus a congresswoman in probably the least popular elected body in the history of the planet,” he said. “And if anybody is going to be anti-D.C., it’s not going to be a creature of D.C. And the Democratic nominee is a creature of D.C.”