For approximately 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide, Rome is the axis around which the entire cosmos turns.

It is often said that the Catholic Church “thinks in centuries,” but when the life of the pope is in jeopardy, there is a feeling in Rome that every second necessitates contemplation.

Pope Francis’s battle with double pneumonia is the most serious health complication the pontiff has suffered since taking the Chair of St. Peter in 2013. As of this writing, his condition remains “critical but stable,” according to the press office of the Holy See. Vatican observers are checking on his prognosis hour to hour.

The streets of Vatican City are both energized and oppressed with grief as faithful Catholics and nonbelievers consider the life and death, possibly soon, of Christ’s representative on earth. Pope Francis is the most unconventional bishop of Rome in modern times. Born as Jorge Bergoglio to an Argentine family of Italian heritage, he is the first pope to emerge from the New World. His ascension to the throne was unexpected by the public and undesired by the man himself. 

Bergoglio was consecrated into the priesthood as a Jesuit, a religious order explicitly averse to moving up within the ranks of the church hierarchy. His subsequent ascent to the episcopacy, cardinalate, and eventually the papacy was against his will.

“Anyone who wants to be pope doesn’t care much for themselves,” he said not long after his election. “God doesn’t bless them.”

His pontificate has been defined by a rejection of pomp. He lives in a modest Vatican apartment instead of the traditional papal residence. His wardrobe is plain. He wears a Casio wristwatch that costs less than an Aperol spritz at the local cafe. He usually forgoes the Ring of the Fisherman for a less-ornate silver ring he wore as a bishop. He cares not for formalities or unnecessary gestures of reverence. He was recently greeted by an attending physician at Gemelli Polyclinic with “Hello, Holy Father,” to which the pontiff joked, “Hello, Holy Son.”

Equally prominent is his commitment to mercy. Perhaps because of this, the press and his critics often characterize the pontiff as a liberal progressive, citing his affection for those living outside the church’s moral parameters. His rhetoric on homosexuality favors compassion over correction. He expresses spiritual fraternity not only with divergent Christian denominations but with entirely foreign faiths. He says his hope is that hell is empty.

Conservative Catholics worry that Francis is compromised by “liberation theology” — a distinctly South American strain of Catholicism that is foremost concerned with supporting the oppressed and championing social justice and is criticized for being theologically and doctrinally unsound.

Yet, at the same time, Francis takes a hard line against many unorthodox movements within the church. He has no interest in reexamining Catholic teaching on the sanctity of life, comparing the procurement of an abortion to “hiring a hitman.” He calls gender ideology “the ugliest danger” of modern times. He dismisses those hoping for women’s ordination, reminding them, “We are Catholics,” and that they are free to start another church if it’s so important to them.

Each pontiff brings to his office a defining emphasis. Francis’s is inarguably that of a “pastor,” one who shepherds and cares for his flock on an intimate, personal level.

Over a decade into his pontificate, the Vicar of Christ is not trying to hide the damage his office has done to his body. He appears more often in a wheelchair than he does standing unsupported. He regularly asks an attendant at his weekly addresses to read his remarks for him. His face has grown bloated, and his skin has turned gray.

Death is rarely physically dignified, and visibly withering from old age in front of the entire world is perhaps one of the heaviest crosses a pope must bear. In many cases, it is the responsibility of the bishop of Rome to instruct the faithful on how to suffer the end of life with grace by demonstrating it himself.

Such was the fate of Pope John Paul II, widely considered the greatest pontiff of the modern era. John Paul, born in Poland as Karol Józef Wojtyła, was the first non-Italian bishop of Rome since the 16th century. An enemy of communism and advocate for the oppressed, he revolutionized the papacy for his successors, reinventing the role of a “universal pastor” to a sovereign who jets from country to country. He ministered to the Catholic faithful not only in Christian nations but even in places such as Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, and Guinea-Bissau.

The voyages took their toll as he aged, and the world watched the once-vibrant pontiff be overtaken by Parkinson’s disease and osteoarthrosis. His fitness regime and weight-lifting were replaced by physical therapy and health attendants. His back hunched, his eyes remained half-closed during remarks, and his voice grew strained.

His legacy also signifies the importance of who the pope is to the secular world. He played a key role in the defeat of Soviet Communism in the Cold War. Francis has also been present in political discourse, recently offering implicit criticism of Vice President JD Vance — and, much more overtly, President Donald Trump — on the subject of immigration.

John Paul’s successor eulogized him, saying, “His memory is an incentive to all of us gathered in this Basilica, in which he celebrated the Eucharist on many occasions, to let ourselves be illuminated and called into question by the word of God that has just been proclaimed.”

That successor was Pope Benedict XVI, who was enthroned on the Chair of St. Peter immediately before Francis. 

If Francis emphasizes the papacy’s role as a pastor, Benedict gave force to its role as a theologian. Before becoming pope, Benedict, a Bavarian, was head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, responsible for confronting heresy. He was widely regarded as a titan of theological writing and, as pope, wrote tome after tome of commentaries using pencil and paper at his desk in the Vatican apartments or his summer residence at Castel Gandolfo. Bookish and not charming in appearance, Benedict was the champion of a Catholic orthodoxy that valued consistent, correct, and universal doctrine as paramount.

He was not afraid to use his physical appearance as a vehicle for the evangelization of beauty. Deemed by the media as the “pope of aesthetics,” Benedict turned papal ceremonies into a showcase of centuries-old fashions meant to convey visually the role and meaning of the office. He wore lavish robes embroidered with images of Christ, the saints, the Virgin Mary, and the crucifixion. He dusted off forgotten pieces in the papal wardrobe, such as the camauro, a hat resembling that of Santa Claus, and the wide-brimmed saturno. 

He was also an advocate of Latin as the universal language of the church. He encouraged the practice of the Tridentine Mass, also known as the Extraordinary Form or the Traditional Latin Mass.

Benedict became the first pope not to die in office. He abdicated from the Holy See in 2013. He said the decision was his own and that he was not being forced out by external pressures, but he left the nuances of his motivations somewhat vague.

“In today’s world, subject to so many rapid changes and shaken by questions of deep relevance for the life of faith, in order to govern the barque of Saint Peter and proclaim the Gospel, both strength of mind and body are necessary,” he told the church. “Strength which, in the last few months, has deteriorated in me to the extent that I have had to recognize my incapacity to adequately fulfill the ministry entrusted to me.”

Going from Benedict to Francis was a seismic shift. Gone were the regal ceremony and traditionalism, replaced by a humility intended to imitate Christ’s poverty.

Gone now is the academic theology, replaced by a pastor who is more interested in talking about Jesus on a personal level and leaving questions about orthodox doctrine to rulings from the Roman Curia.

Gone, too, is the Latin Mass revival, which, to the dismay of many Catholics around the world, Francis quashed via a motu proprio in 2021. He cited concerns about a growing strain of separatism within the Latin Mass communities, a concern reflected among high traditionalist Catholics, some of whom have increasingly spoken ill of the pontiff and even accused him of being illegitimate, a position known as sedevacantism, or the Chair [of St. Peter] being empty.

However, these critics are a tiny, vocal minority. The overwhelming majority of Catholics, conservative or progressive, recognize Francis as the legitimate bishop of Rome, regardless of their assessment of his reign.

That is the reason the apparent imminence of his death is so consequential.

When the bishop of Rome dies, a millennia-old machine within the Vatican immediately activates as the College of Cardinals, the scarlet-clad “princes of the Church,” gathers in Rome from around the world.

As they make their journey, staff in Vatican City are already in action. The Ring of the Fisherman is smashed by the camerlengo with a ceremonial hammer, marking the end of the deceased pope’s reign. This is the true period of sede vacante.

After a nine-day period of mourning, during which the pope’s body is displayed for pilgrims to view and pray over, the body is buried, and the College of Cardinals begins the process of selecting a new sovereign.

Conclave (English: [locked] with key) is a time when all the cardinals are sequestered in the Sistine Chapel until they reach a two-thirds majority vote on who should be the next pope. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to take part in the secret ballot. This process can take days or months, depending on the strength of various factions within the college.

The cardinals participate in multiple rounds of voting every day until the required threshold is reached. The ballots of each vote are gathered and burned in a small stove inside the voting area, with chemicals added to make the smoke either black or white. The smoke is released from a tiny chimney visible to thousands of spectators outside St. Peter’s Basilica. If it is black, the vote has failed. If it is white, the crowd roars in anticipation of the cardinal protodeacon’s appearance on the balcony of the basilica to declare, “Habemus papam!” (“We have a pope!”)

Hypothetically, any Catholic man is eligible to become the bishop of Rome, but a non-cardinal has not been elected since Pope Urban VI in the 14th century. 

Vatican observers keep notes on cardinals they believe are positioned for election to the papacy, known as papabile. It’s far from an exact science. The College of Cardinals sometimes surprises its own members, as was the case with the election of Francis. 

It is a common mistake to interpret the machinations of the cardinals on a political spectrum, right-wing clerics and left-wing counterparts working against each other.

The politics of the Catholic Church are perpendicular to the secular world’s right-left spectrum, and the terms “conservative” and “liberal” take on different meanings when describing Catholic dispositions. The divine and the profane may overlap on certain social issues such as sexuality, abortion, and refugees, but a “conservative” pope is a fundamentally different creature than a “conservative” politician.

The primary considerations in the election of a new Vicar of Christ are concerns such as adherence to the Gospel, commitment to evangelization, and the fortitude to root out corruption in one of the world’s most complex religious institutions.

Cardinal Péter Erdő is a Hungarian prelate seen as a thoroughly orthodox and theologically articulate papabile who would please conservatives. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, an Italian prelate who has worked closely with Francis, could be seen as his more liberal foil. Often, these candidates are not chosen because there is a ceiling on their support.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, emerged as a dark horse amid the chaos and brutality of the Israel-Hamas war. He made headlines after offering to take the place of hostages captured by the terrorist group and is beloved by Israelis and Palestinians alike. His age could be a liability, as some see the 59-year-old as too young.

Many hypertraditionalists hope that an African cardinal such as Robert Sarah will be the next to inherit the Holy See. African clergy are distinctly firmer than those in the West, perhaps a consequence of the social turmoil on their continent compared to the indolence of Europe and North America. Sarah is a quiet yet forceful advocate of preserving old Catholic ways and will turn 80 in June.

Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York remains the United States’s most prominent papabile, but general wisdom says an American cannot become pope because giving the Holy See to a citizen of the world superpower risks upsetting the geopolitical order. 

Papabiles almost universally show humility when confronted with speculation that they have a shot at the papal tiara. Dolan took it a step further when he was asked such a question ahead of the 2013 conclave, saying anyone thinking he could be the pope must “have been smoking marijuana.” There is an old Vatican saying: “He who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal.”

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state, is a papabile by virtue of his office — the second-most senior position under the papacy. His career is rich with experience in church governance and diplomatic work, and his theological disposition is a bit more conservative than Francis’s, though his engagement with China and its Communist Party is controversial. His election would be seen as one of continuity, not changing the balance of power in the church. It would also mark the return of an Italian to the papacy after three consecutive non-Italian popes.

The list of papabile goes on: Cardinal Gerhard Müller from Germany, Cardinal Luis Tagle from the Philippines, Cardinal Raymond Burke and Cardinal Seán Patrick O’Malley (who turned 80 last year) from the U.S., and many more. 

Any prediction offered on the future of the Holy See can spark dramatic debate among Vaticanists, provoking disagreements on a candidate’s chances or merits. 

Ultimately, the decision is up to the scarlet princes — not even the Holy Spirit is believed to influence their decision directly, only to guide them. Any cardinal will tell you that many cardinals in conclave have historically chosen not to listen.

The Catholic Church teaches that St. Peter became the first head of the church when Jesus Christ gave him the “keys to the Kingdom of Heaven” and the authority to “bind” and “loose” others’ sins on earth. The papacy is believed to be the direct succession of that Petrine authority — the Vicar of Christ on earth.

Peter, though revered as an apostle worthy of veneration, is also portrayed in the Gospels as prone to mistakes, often foolish, and sometimes outright contradictory to God’s will. These human failings are characteristic of popes up to the modern day. 

Papal infallibility, the authority of the bishop of Rome to make a declaration free from error and beyond all contestation, is often misunderstood in popular culture. The pope has the power to speak on faith and morals free from error if he so chooses, which is called speaking ex cathedra (English: “from the chair [of St. Peter]”). But this privilege is rarely invoked — the last to do so was Pope Pius XII in 1950, when he made the Assumption of Mary a dogma of the church.

In all other moments, the pope is as exposed to human folly as the cardinals who elect him and the billions he shepherds.

But whether stepping out onto the balcony to greet the world for the first time after a conclave or taking his last breaths before leaving this world, the Vicar of Christ’s primary responsibility is the same as that given to Peter by Christ: “Feed my lambs, take care of my sheep.” 

Daily rosary recitations for Francis are being said in St. Peter’s Square. Thousands gather to pray for his health and his soul during this illness, and many thousands more watch the vigil from home. 

Vatican statements are rare and opaque. “The Pope had a quiet night and is resting,” the Holy See Press Office says, though “the prognosis remains guarded.”

Social media users and news commentators have turned the end of the pope’s life into a circus of speculation and intrigue. Social media posts in prayerful support of the pontiff are matched by those wishing him to die, weighing in on the author’s preferred successor or deriding the entire concept of the papacy as a farce.

Whether it is now or years from now, this is the fate of all pontiffs — dying in front of the world.

Faithful in Rome bring their rosaries to the Vatican, and some carry signs. Among them are priests and religious brothers from nations near and far. Religious sisters join them, wearing a variety of habits that signal their order, as well as bishops and archbishops. They are surrounded on all sides by statues of saints looking down on them.

VATICAN CITY ANXIOUS AS HEALTH OF POPE FRANCIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN

Cardinals sit and participate in prayer services from the steps of St. Peter’s Basilica. They dress plainly, and their faces are expressionless. Some of them are considered papabile.

One wonders if there is a fear in their hearts that they will be the next poor soul forced to carry the dreadful weight of Peter’s keys. 

Timothy Nerozzi is a foreign affairs reporter for the Washington Examiner.