The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which withholds federal funding to schools that permit transgender participation, is not likely to become law due to the Senate filibuster.

But the vote, teed up Thursday by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), suggests the continued potency Republicans see in transgender politics after putting it front and center in the 2024 election. It is one of the first bills Senate GOP leadership is prioritizing since retaking the majority in January.

“I would hope that some folks come to the realization on the Democrat side of the [aisle] that if they want to actually be a viable party in this country, they need to take a look at what these 90-10 issues are,” said Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY), relating the debate to his own daughters playing sports growing up.

“Each of them would have been outscored, outshot, outrebounded — beaten out by, you know, a guy that wants to play on women’s sports,” he added.

Several purple-state Democrats declined to say whether they will support the bill on Thursday, with Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) calling it a “cliffhanger” for reporters covering the vote.

But others were ready with a carefully calibrated response. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) said the decision should be left to local communities even as he stated that transgender participation could at times be unfair.

“Look, there are some areas where trans girls should not be playing in sports against biological girls, but that decision should be made at the local level, and it should be made between parents, teachers, principals, and athletic associations,” he told the Washington Examiner.

“We need to be doing this in a manner that we’re not ending up picking on these poor kids,” Gallego said of transgender athletes.

Sen. Mark Kelly, his Democratic colleague from Arizona, similarly said the federal government should not intervene in the matter.

“It shouldn’t be a bunch of us here in the Senate dictating this to local communities,” he said. “I think it’s all kind of ridiculous.”

Almost every Democrat who will be voting on Monday took a stance on the legislation in the last Congress. Freshmen like Gallego and Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) opposed a version of the bill in 2023, when they were still serving in the House.

So did all Democrats who were already in the Senate when Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), the bill’s sponsor, forced a floor vote last March.

The outcome is unlikely to be much different on Monday. Only two House Democrats backed the legislation in January when Republicans brought it back up for a vote.

The continued focus nonetheless opens the party up to negative campaign ads as a handful of vulnerable incumbents seek to defend their seats in 2026.

The Trump campaign alone spent more than $37 million on television ads related to transgender politics last year, while the Senate Leadership Fund, an outside GOP group, featured it heavily in advertising against ousted Sen. Sherrod Brown.

During the 2024 presidential election, 55% of voters, and 85% of Trump backers, said support for transgender rights in government and society had gone too far, according to AP VoteCast.

Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), both up for reelection next year, were among those who told the Washington Examiner they still need to familiarize themselves with the legislation before disclosing their position.

The Senate is just one battleground in the fight over school sports. The NCAA announced that it would bar transgender athletes from participating in women’s sports after President Donald Trump signed an executive order mirroring Tuberville’s bill.

But the order has been met with resistance from states including Maine and California, prompting Education Department investigations and legal threats from Attorney General Pam Bondi.

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Civil rights groups, meanwhile, are suing the administration over the executive order, arguing it discriminates against transgender students by denying them equal educational opportunities.

Fewer than 10 transgender athletes currently participate in college sports, the NCAA told a Senate committee in December.