ABC Shuts Down Pro-Leftist Polling Site FiveThirtyEight

When ABC News announced it was shutting down the pollster FiveThirtyEight, it called to mind the site’s claim that former Vice President Kamala Harris stood a better chance than now-President Donald Trump in November’s election. The shutdown shows legacy media, which have long inaccurately boosted perceived support for Democrats, are finally losing control.

Just before the election, FiveThirtyEight claimed Harris stood a 50 percent chance of winning to Trump’s 49 percent. It said, “Polls from more frequently polled, but less well-regarded, firms had shown a more Trump-leaning race” but shifted toward Harris before the election.

FiveThirtyEight claimed Trump stood just a 29 percent chance of winning the national popular vote against Harris’ 71 percent. It also claimed Trump had a meager 1 percent chance of winning in a “landslide” of more than 350 electoral votes. 

These predictions could hardly be further from the truth. While Trump didn’t technically win a “landslide” by the polling site’s standards, he won the electoral college 312-226 — winning all seven swing states, flipping six that went for former President Joe Biden in 2020. He also won the national popular vote with 49.9 percent to Harris’ 48.4 percent, becoming the first Republican president to win the popular vote in 20 years.

Nate Silver, the founder and former lead editor of FiveThirtyEight, even suggested Harris could turn Florida blue — giving her a 21 percent chance of winning the state. “A one-in-five chance isn’t bad, but it isn’t great either.” When another X user said a Trump would win Florida by a “minimum” of eight points, Silver said to “stop huffing the Twitter vibes.” 

FiveThirtyEight also runs a presidential approval rating, which had steadily been decreasing in support for Trump since his inauguration, with “disapproval” overtaking “approval” for the first time on March 4. Other pollsters agree the numbers have narrowed since inauguration, but according to RealClearPolitics, the ratings have stabilized with 48.9 percent approval and 47.5 percent disapproval.

RealClearPolitics has shown itself far more reliable than legacy pollsters like FiveThirtyEight. Ahead of the election, RealClearPolitics similarly placed Harris as leading Trump — but by only 0.1 percent, and its “no toss up” electoral map showed Trump winning five of seven swing states. Ahead of the election, The New York Times ran a hit piece against the site for making this prediction — which turned out to be conservative — claiming it used “low-quality polls.”

The New York Times was hardly in a place to judge. It placed Harris ahead of Trump by 1 percent and predicted she would win two of the seven swing states, with the candidates in a dead heat in three others. “Harris could easily prevail if the polls are underestimating her,” the site reads. “Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly.” Given the results, they apparently underestimated Trump. 

No wonder Americans are rapidly losing trust in legacy media. FiveThirtyEight referred to J. Ann Selzer — who supposedly found Harris was leading Trump in Iowa, which he won by 13 points — as “the Best Pollster in Politics.” It also published bizarre takes — attempting to link the pro-life movement to racism and blaming obesity concerns on “right-wing trolls.” 

“Seems as if 538 is being shut down because the polling games and information operations they long played on behalf of Democrats are no longer as effective as they need to be to justify their existence,” wrote Federalist Editor-in-Chief Mollie Hemingway on X. 

ABC News’ shutdown of FiveThirtyEight shows that as legacy media lose credibility, they lose the ability to boost perceived Democrat support — and their purpose. 

Logan Washburn is a staff writer covering election integrity. He is a spring 2025 fellow of The College Fix. He graduated from Hillsdale College, served as Christopher Rufo’s editorial assistant, and has bylines in The Wall Street Journal, The Tennessean, and The Daily Caller. Logan is from Central Oregon but now lives in rural Michigan.