A win for Schimel would flip the court’s current 4-3 majority. The outcome of the race could have a major impact on the 2026 midterm elections and the presidential race two years later.

The April 1 contest is Trump’s first test with swing state voters following a busy few months in office. His administration has slashed thousands of federal jobs, shuttered hundreds of programs, and caused confusion over the future of everything from education to Social Security.

Musk, the face of the Department of Government Efficiency, has been behind unilateral efforts to gut federal agencies. He’s a pretty unpopular figure on his own, but with Trump in his corner, he could be an unstoppable political force.

The president deployed Musk to help deliver a win in the Badger State. If Musk is successful, it will cement him as a conservative kingmaker, and his efforts in Wisconsin could become the blueprint for the midterm elections. If he fails, it would give Republicans license to distance themselves from him and some of his more controversial actions.

In Wisconsin, Schimel seems to be riding high on the Make America Great Again Trump and Musk train. He spoke at Musk’s get-out-the-vote call earlier this month and joined Donald Trump Jr. at a rally where the president’s eldest son told supporters that a Schimel win would protect his father’s agenda.

“A really interesting dynamic has emerged,” Howard Schweber, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told the Washington Examiner. “The polling now suggests the race is tied. One implication here is that this move has worked exactly the way Trump and Musk hoped it would and in exactly the opposite way the Democrats hoped it would. Conservative voters are rallying around Schimel to show their support for Musk and Trump.”

Democrats, he added, made a bad bet based on the assumption that everyone hates Trump and Musk. While Musk’s often self-aggrandizing moves can be polarizing, Trump’s promotion of him as his proxy balances it out.

“I’m not a huge fan of the guy, but if Donald Trump likes him, I can get behind it,” Clifford Hayes, a MAGA supporter from Milwaukee, told the Washington Examiner.

Republicans have recast the state race as a chance for Trump’s base to come out and show their loyalty to him and push back against judges Trump claims treat him and his administration unfairly.
Crawford’s campaign has pivoted from speaking on statewide troubles to going all-in on Musk-bashing.

“This race is the first real test point in the country on Elon Musk and his influence on our politics, and voters want an opportunity to push back on that and the influence he is trying to make on Wisconsin and the rest of the country,” Crawford campaign spokesman Derrick Honeyman said.

State Democrats have held anti-Musk town halls while Crawford’s supporters have shown up at multiple stops on Schimel’s statewide bus tour with large red and white “for sale” signs or gigantic checks made out to Schimel from Musk.

“We may yet look back and see this as a spectacular political ‘own goal’ in which the Crawford campaign and the Democrats have supported and adopted a strategy that has played directly into the hands of Schimel and conservatives,” Schweber said.

“I think this was a very successful strategy on the part of the Republicans — the national Republicans. I don’t think this came from the Schimel campaign. This comes from the White House. The mistake on the part of the Democrats was to lean into it and treat it as an opportunity rather than a danger.”

Musk has dropped about $20 million to back Schimel, making him the single largest spender in the race. His super PAC, America PAC, has spent over $6.6 million on the election. The group created a canvassing operation of more than 500 employees who have relentlessly knocked on doors in rural areas of the state and left-leaning Madison and Milwaukee. The canvassers were paid workers, making $25 an hour, three times more than Wisconsin’s minimum wage. The group has purportedly knocked on a million doors to push not only Schimel as a candidate but also Musk and Trump.

“I am with America PAC, an organization run by Elon Musk,” reads part of one question that Wisconsin canvassers have recited. They later ask in a provided script if “President Trump and Elon Musk” can count on them to vote for Schimel.

One Madison-based Republican operative the Washington Examiner spoke to says that Musk inserting his name is “characteristic” of his personality.

Schweber agrees, adding that the script also points to efforts to nationalize the election.

“This isn’t about Schimel at all anymore,” he said, “It’s not about abortion anymore. It’s about showing your support for Trump and his guy, Musk. Trump has sent his trusted lieutenant Musk here to Wisconsin to bring a message. This was a local race, but the great conservative leader in Washington, Trump, sent his right-hand man, Musk, far off to Wisconsin to bring the truth that you should vote for Schimel because it’s good for Trump and Musk. I believe at this point there is a substantial portion of Schimel voters for whom Schimel is really kind of secondary.”

Despite some early success for Musk, there have been a few hiccups along the way, like when a canvasser wearing a “Make America Great Again” lanyard and holding literature that told voters to “reject liberal Susan Crawford” to protect Trump’s agenda was caught admitting she knew very little about the race.

“If we elect Brad Schimel, nobody will have the right to choose [on abortion] anymore,” a suburban Milwaukee Crawford supporter told the canvasser on audio obtained by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
“For real?!” Musk’s vote-getter responded.

The Crawford supporter then told the canvasser, “You don’t have to do this,” to which the canvasser responded, “I need my bills paid, girl!”

Aside from raising his political credentials, Musk has other interests at play in Wisconsin’s race.

500,000 EARLY BALLOTS CAST WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT RACE

The court could decide on a case involving Tesla, his electric vehicle company. Tesla sued Wisconsin in January, challenging a state law that forbids manufacturers from owning dealerships.

Schimel has said his vote can’t be bought but has not committed to recusing himself from the case if he is elected.