“Debut Crystal Ball House ratings — 209 seats Safe/Likely/Leans D, 207 seats Safe/Likely/Leans R, 19 Toss-ups,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, posted on X. “Competitive overall map gives Rs a chance to defy history but big-picture midterm trends favor Dems.”

The preview has 209 House seats expected to go to the Democrats, 207 to the Republicans, and 19 considered a toss-up. That would lead to a similar margin as the 2024 elections, when the GOP won 220 seats to the Democrats’ 215.

“Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so,” Kondik wrote in an accompanying analysis. “Republicans do have a couple of factors working in their favor, though, that could help them as they seek to defy history.”

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Viet Shelton asserted in a statement that “House Republicans are failing miserably and it’s why House Democrats are favored to re-take the majority.”

“Instead of lowering prices, Republicans are sending the economy into a tailspin and working to decimate Medicaid,” Shelton continued. “House Democrats have the better message, stronger candidates, and a favorable political environment as we enter 2026.”

But National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella expressed confidence that the math is in Republicans’ favor, saying it’s “clear” the House GOP is on “offense” for 2026.

“House Democrats are in shambles,” Marinella said. “They don’t have a clear message, and they’re incapable of selling voters on their failed agenda. We will work tirelessly to hold the Democrat Party accountable and grow our Republican majority.”

Still, Kondik, while acknowledging that Republicans are not holding many seats in traditionally blue areas, said the party could snag a couple of key seats if state redistricting falls to their advantage.

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The biggest factor of all, however, will be what events and economic realities play out between now and November 2026.

“So much about the economic situation is uncertain—let alone the practical implications of the haphazard Elon Musk-led cuts to the federal government or how Republicans craft an extension of Trump’s first-term tax cuts,” Kondik wrote. “There is and will be plenty for voters to react to in the midterm: typically that reaction is negative, although it does not have to be.”