Republicans Make Surprising Gains in New York, Setting the Stage for a Fierce Battle in 2024
In a stunning turn of events, Republicans have secured four House seats in the deep blue state of New York in 2022. This unexpected splash of red has given the GOP a narrow edge in the chamber and salvaged what was otherwise a disappointing midterm performance for the party.
Looking ahead to 2024, defending these New York seats is a top priority for Republicans if they want to retain or expand their House majority. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is determined to win back these seats, making it a rallying cry for the party.
Six freshman New York GOP House representatives, who won in districts carried by President Joe Biden in 2020, are seeking re-election. Their campaigns are among the seven New York House races in 2024 that Cook Political Report rates as either “toss-ups” or “lean Democratic.”
However, there is a potential hurdle on the horizon. If the appeal of a June ruling by the New York Appellate Court fails, the 2022 Congressional map, which gave Republicans a 15-11 advantage over Democrats, will be repealed. A new map will be put in place for 2024.
Battlegrounds: Long Island, Hudson Valley
Out of the seven key New York Congressional districts that will determine the control of the House in 2025, three are located on Long Island and three are in the Hudson Valley. The remaining district, Congressional District 22, is in central New York around Syracuse.
If the Hoffman appeal is rejected, analysts predict that the way the Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) drafts the map and how lawmakers tweak it could impact the re-election prospects of at least two, and possibly up to six, sitting New York Republican Congressional representatives.
As the battle for control of the House intensifies, it is clear that the outcome of these New York races will be crucial. The stakes are high, and both parties are gearing up for a fierce fight.
A couple enjoys a warm late-October afternoon on the Hudson River in Cold Spring, New York. (John Haughey/The Epoch Times)
CD 1: Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY)
First-time candidate and Naval Academy graduate Mr. LaLota secured more than 55 percent of the 2022 vote to retain the seat held for four terms by Mr. Zeldin, who opted not to run for reelection in the House to launch a bid for governor.
CD 1 spans the east end of Long Island’s North Shore. It has been a swing battleground since the 1990s and has leaned Republican since the 2010s, although former President Barack Obama won the district twice.
In 2020, 55.9 percent of its registered voters were Republicans, but President Joe Biden won it by 0.2 percent. Mr. LaLota’s 2022 results outperformed the party’s 2020 CD 1 results by 12 percent.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Elections Daily rate the outcome of the 2024 CD 1 race as “likely Republican.” Inside Elections rates the district as “Lean Republican.”
As of Nov. 2, Mr. LaLota had $1 million in campaign funds in the bank and no primary challenger.
At least five Democrats have filed to vie for their party’s nod to take on Mr. LaLota. Among them are former state Sen. Jim Gaughran, chemist and CD 1 2020 primary candidate Nancy Goroff, and attorney and former administrative law judge Craig Herskowitz.
Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) leaves a candidate forum with House Republicans to hear from members running for U.S. Speaker of House in the Longworth House Office Building in Washington, on Oct. 10, 2023. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
CD 3: Rep. George Santos (R-NY)
Mr. Santos’ odds of being on the June 25 primary ballots are slim, and his chances of advancing to November are virtually nil.
As of Nov. 2, at least nine Republicans had filed to run for Mr. Santos’ seat representing the Long Island North Shore district he flipped by defeating Democrat Robert Zimmerman in 2022 by more than 7.5 percent—while Mr. Biden won the district by 8.2 percent—to succeed the retiring two-term Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).
Among party rivals lining up to vie for Santos’ seat are former J.P. Morgan vice president and U.S. Air Force veteran Kellen Curry; Bayside small business owner and Israeli Defense Forces veteran Daniel Norber; attorney and Air Force veteran Gregory Hach; former Special Operations Command Central strategic director Thomas Ludwig; businessman and retired NYPD detective Mike Sapraicone; financial executive Jim Toes; and Dr. Harvey Manes.
At least nine Democrats have also filed to run for New York’s CD 3, including the newly un-retired Mr. Suozzi, who will take on former state Sen. Anna Kaplan, Nassau County legislator and CD 3 2022 candidate Joshua Lafazan, investment banker Scott Livingston, nonprofit executive Zak Malamed, and St. John’s University Law School professor Will Murphy, among others.
The Cook Political Report and Elections Daily both rate CD 3 as “Solid Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball gives it a “Safe Republican” classification. Inside Elections rates race results as “Likely Republican.”
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) officially introduces his “No Fortune For Fraud” Act, on March 7, 2023. (NTD)
CD 4: Rep. Anthony Esposito (R-NY)
A retired New York City Police Department detective and former Hempstead Town Council member, Mr. Esposito defeated fellow Hempstead Town Council member Laura Gillen by 3.6 percent, less than 10,000 votes, in November 2022.
He will likely need to do so again in 2024 because Ms. Gillen is the heavy favorite to defeat at least four other party rivals in the Democratic CD 4 primary for a rematch.
Mr. Esposito flipped a long-held Democrat seat won in 2020 by Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.), who opted not to run in 2022, and helped by Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.) for nine terms.
Mr. Biden won the Long Island South Shore Nassau County district by 14.6 percent in 2020, with Mr. Esposito’s 2022 results outperforming the party’s 2020 CD 4 results by 18.3 percent.
Despite Democrats’ significant registered voter advantage, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales all rate CD 4 as a “toss-up.”
As of Nov. 3, Mr. Esposito does not have a primary challenger, and his campaign had $1.113 million in the bank. Ms. Gillen’s campaign reported to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) nearly $400,000 in cash on hand as of Sept. 30.
In addition to Ms. Gillen, at least four other Democrats are seeking the CD 4 seat. Among them is investment company owner Gian Jones and former Nassau/Suffolk counties development and community education director Patricia Maher, a Nassau County Democratic Committee mainstay and perennial candidate.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) speaks at a rally for GOP gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin in July 2022. (Courtesy Mike Lawler for Congress)
CD 17: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY)
Mr. Lawler, a former advisor to Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, pulled off a major upset in 2022 by defeating House DCCC chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) by less than 1 percent.
Defeating the first-term Republican in 2024 is a top priority for the DCCC, Democrats’ House Majority PAC, and New York’s state Democratic committee.
Mr. Lawler does not have a primary challenger as yet, and his campaign reported more than $2 million in cash on hand to the FEC on Sept. 30.
Two prominent Democrats are running for his CD 17 seat: former U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) and Katonah-Lewisboro School Board member Liz Gereghty, who is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s sister, will vie in the primary to take on the GOP incumbent in November.
Mr. Biden won CD 17 by 10 percent in 2020. Despite the Cook Partisan Voter Index documenting that Democrats have a D+2 edge in CD 17 voter registration, Cook, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2024 race as a “toss-up.”
The only publicly posted polling thus far was a May 4-7 survey of 300 likely voters by EMC Research and End Citizens United/Let America Vote Action Fund in which Mr. Lawler edged Mr. Jones 50 to 48 percent.
CD 17 spans both sides of the river in the Lower Hudson Valley. It includes all of Rockland and Putnam counties, northern Westchester County, and parts of southern Dutchess County. It is among districts that could be significantly changed should Republicans lose their Hoffman appeal.
Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Mike Waltz (D-N.Y.) during an interview at the Concordia Annual Summit in New York, on Sept. 18, 2023. (Richard Moore/The Epoch Times)
CD 18: Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY)
Mr. Ryan, a West Point graduate and Iraq war combat veteran, served as Ulster County Executive before winning a special election in August 2022 for CD 18. He defeated Republican Colin Schmitt by 1.3 percent in a purple district that leans Democrat but has a history of electing Republicans.
As of Nov. 3, Mr. Ryan had at least one challenger in the CD 18 Democratic primary—Alexander Saulino, a camera operator from Poughkeepsie. His campaign’s Sept. 30 FEC filing showed $1.678 million in its kitty while no FEC data was available for Mr. Saulino’s campaign.
Two Republicans have filed to run for CD 18: Realtor Lovelynn Gwinn and retired New York City Police deputy inspector and Brooklyn precinct commander Alison Esposito, an Orange County native who ran in 2022 as Mr. Zeldin’s lieutenant governor candidate.
Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) speaks to reporters in Washington, on Oct. 4, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)
CD 19: Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY)
Mr. Molinaro, a former Dutchess County executive and the Republican Party’s 2018 gubernatorial candidate, won the GOP nomination for CD 19 in 2022. He defeated Democrat John Riley by less than 1.6 percent in November 2022.
As of Nov. 3, Mr. Molinaro has $1.35 million in his campaign coffers and no primary challenger. Three Democrats are running for the seat, including 2022 opponent Mr. Riley.
CD 19 stretches across the Hudson Valley from the Connecticut state line to the Catskills and Cayuga Lake. It has a history of being a competitive district, and the outcome of the 2024 race is rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) is seeking re-election in his New York Congressional District 22, which is rated as a “toss-up” district. (Brandon Williams Campaign)
CD 22: Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY)
Mr. Williams, a business owner and former Navy submarine officer, won his 2022 race against Democrat Francis Conroe by just 1 percent.
CD 22 is centered around Syracuse and covers Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties, as well as a small part of Oswego County. Mr. Biden won the district by 7.4 percent in 2020, but Mr. Williams outperformed those results by 8.5 percent in 2022.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales all rate CD 22 as a “toss-up.”
As of Nov. 3, Mr. Williams faces no primary challenger, and his campaign’s Sept. 30 FEC filing reported $861,000 in the bank. At least five Democrats are running for the seat, including DeWitt Town Councilor and Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood and state Sen. John Mannion (D-Syracuse).
How have endorsements from the AFL-CIO and the Communications Workers of America impacted the race so far
Forces Green Beret and lawyer A.J. Sipp; and Mrs. Diana Santos, a former New York City corporate attorney. Local Democratic leaders are weighing whether to rally behind a candidate or let the field battle it out.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Elections Daily rate the outcome of the 2024 CD 3 race as “likely Democrat.” The New York State affiliate of the AFL-CIO and the Communications Workers of America issued endorsements in the race in the summer.
As of Nov. 2, the North Shore Business Council PAC’s Santos-linked campaign
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