New CPI report highlights rising prices from energy to beef.

Since hitting a 41-year-high of 9.1 percent in June 2022, the U.S. annual inflation growth rate has been on a downward trend for 12 consecutive months. In June, the consumer price index slowed to a lower-than-expected 3 percent, the lowest level since March 2021.

“Good jobs and lower costs: That’s Bidenomics in action. Today’s report brings new and encouraging evidence that inflation is falling while our economy remains strong,” President Joe Biden said in a White House statement. “Annual inflation has fallen each of the last twelve months and is now down to 3%.”

Is it time to declare victory on the inflation front, or is it essential to wait a little longer?

“The inflation fight is not over,” says Raymond Micaletti, the CIO at Allio Finance, adding that it is unlikely the CPI will return to the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target this year.

“The Fed itself is forecasting it not to reach that level until 2025,” Mr. Micaletti told The Epoch Times. “If it does reach 2 percent, however, it is unlikely to stay there for long given the aforementioned forces in play.”

Inflation Base Effect

Many economists are pointing to the base effect in the latest headline CPI figure.

In economics, the base effect can distort the current rate due to significantly high levels of inflation in the previous reference period. Experts note that this can make it challenging to determine inflation over time accurately.

So, with the annual CPI above 9 percent in June 2022 and now at 3 percent in June 2023, it would appear that price growth has decelerated at a rapid pace. However, this might not accurately depict the true inflation trajectory. The solution, some economists argue, is to employ more extended periods for comparison or alter the base value to a more representative level.

As a result, annual headline inflation rates in the coming months will be calculated against an elevated baseline. The same would apply to other goods and services, be it food or energy. The base effects could then subside heading into 2024, experts note.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcasting model, the CPI and core CPI, which eliminates the volatile energy and food components, could experience modest upticks to year-over-year prints of 3.4 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Renewed Energy Price Pressures

Energy prices have decreased considerably compared to a year ago, with the index tumbling nearly 17 percent year-over-year. However, the energy category rose by 0.6 percent from May to June. In addition, on a month-over-month basis, gasoline prices jumped 1 percent, and electricity costs climbed 0.9 percent.

Within the global energy markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have surged 10 percent over the last month, firming above $75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Year-to-date, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline has risen 10 percent to $3.54, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

“The rebound in oil prices hints that the risk of an uptick in headline inflation is building stronger for the coming months,” stated Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a note.

Oil prices are on an upward trajectory amid multiple bullish developments: global demand forecasts revised higher, an international supply deficit, flat domestic production, and declining U.S. crude inventories.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that proven oil and gas reserves are tumbling.

“International proved crude oil and natural gas reserves held by 187 publicly traded global exploration and production (E&P) companies declined by 5.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in 2022, or 2%, according to data from the companies’ annual financial reports,” the EIA stated.

Phill Flynn, an energy strategist at the PRICE Futures Group, believes oil prices still have more room for gains.

“Fundamentally, things are looking very bullish across the board for products and oil even a bearish American Petroleum Institute report yesterday didn’t seem to shake the market because they realize that if you look at the four-week moving average, this is just a blip in a tightening market,” Mr. Flynn wrote in a note.

The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stockpiles increased by 3.026 million barrels for the week ending July 7, snapping a three-week slump. In addition, the weekly EIA storage report noted a supply build of nearly six million barrels after a cumulative withdrawal of approximately 16 million barrels in the previous three weeks.

Overall, the EIA forecasts that crude oil prices will reach roughly $80 per barrel by the year’s end and average at approximately $84 a barrel in 2024.

Beef Prices Trending Higher

The beef and veal subindex slowed to an annualized rate of 2.7 percent in June. But this component of the CPI report has gradually risen for several months in a row, including a 0.4 percent jump last month.