Analysis: Joe Biden's Net Approvals Tank in Battleground States

President Joe Biden’s net approval rating has cratered in nine states that the Cook Political Report is claiming will have the most competitive Senate races, according to an analysis from Morning Consult.

The Cook Political Report claimed that states such as Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the midterm elections with all be battleground states, where the Senate race is either rating toss-up, lean Democrat, or lean Republican. The Senate elections in two of the states — Ohio and Pennsylvania — will be for open seats.

However, according to the polls taken by Morning Consult, Biden’s net approval is under fire and has seen a significant difference from the first quarter of the year to the current, third quarter of the year in the same states.

• Arizona: Plus eight (+8) net approval in the first quarter compared to negative nine (-9) in the third quarter.
• Florida: Plus eight (+8) net approval in the first quarter compared to negative nine (-9) in the third quarter.
• Georgia: Plus 11 net approval in the first quarter compared to negative three (-3) in the third quarter.
• Nevada: Plus nine (+9) net approval in the first quarter compared to negative three (-3) in the third quarter.
• New Hampshire: Plus seven (+7) net approval in the first quarter compared to negative two (-2) in the third quarter.
• North Carolina: Plus seven (+7) net approval in the first quarter compared to negative five (-5) in the third quarter.
• Ohio: Plus two (+2) net approval in the first quarter compared to negative ten (-10) in the third quarter.
• Pennsylvania: Plus nine (+9) net approval in the first quarter compared to negative five (-5) in the third quarter.
• Wisconsin: Plus seven (+7) net approval in the first quarter compared to negative seven (-7) in the third quarter.

The first quarter polling was done by Morning Consult from January 21 to April 20, while the third quarter polling was taken from July 21 to October 20. Both quarters polled at least 2,000 registered voters in each state and saw a margin of error of up to plus or minus two percent.

Morning Consult noted that these states can host some of the most decisive Senate races in the country, which are still developing a year from the election. “Biden’s net approval rating has fallen underwater in the suburbs… tugging on his popularity in states that feature open-seat contests such as North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.”

The analysis of the poll stated:

Distancing oneself from a party’s weakened national brand is an almost impossible task in a midterm election cycle.

…

By the time next year’s general election campaigns are heating up, inflation, supply chain pileups and COVID-19 could be in the rearview mirror — but their effects could also linger. And in early 2020, nobody in professional Democratic politics thought the “defund the police” mantra would come to be associated with the party like it did in the aftermath of George Floyd’s killing by Minneapolis police, a reminder of the difficulty in forecasting the political environment one year out.

“Some of the largest drops in Biden’s suburban support came in Georgia, as well as Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania — all of which feature prominently in the pending races to control the Senate or House,” Morning Consult stated.

Democrat strategist Adrianne Marsh, who specializes in rural and red-state politics, said, “Issues with the party’s national image and uncontrollable challenges heighten the need for candidates to set themselves apart from partisan brands to help open gettable voters to the party’s persuasion efforts.”

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow him on Twitter.

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