Republicans aim to win 2 governorships in 2023 races.
Republicans have a chance to strengthen their state leadership by winning two races against Democrat governors this fall.
Out of the three 2023 gubernatorial contests, Republicans are expected to retain one executive mansion, flip a second, and have a reasonable chance to capture the third.
Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi are choosing their executives this year, and the GOP holds a solid legislative majority at the state and federal level in all three. Governorships in Kentucky and Louisiana are currently held by Democrats, but voters in those states have a history of alternating parties in their choice of a governor.
This year, analysts say Mississippi is safely in Republican hands, Louisiana is leaning Republican, and Kentucky is slightly leaning Democratic.
GOP victories in these races would bring the number of states with Republican governors to 28.
Kentucky
In Kentucky, the polling is tilted toward Democrat incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear, but Republican Daniel Cameron has been a popular state attorney general and is within closing distance for the Nov. 7 election.
Mr. Beshear, 45, was elected to a first term in 2019. He defeated Republican Matt Bevin, who had struggled to overcome low approval ratings after signing a bill reforming teacher pensions. Mr. Beshear is the son of former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear.
The younger Beshear is running on his record in handling crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters. Eastern Kentucky was devastated by flooding in 2022.
“We’ve been through a lot these past four years, and some days have been tougher than others, but I will always show up to help the people of Kentucky,” he said in a campaign ad, touting his achievements in creating job growth, providing clean drinking water, and bringing aid in the wake of disaster.
Mr. Beshear’s positions in support of abortion and same-sex marriage put him at odds with the views of nearly 60 percent of adults in socially conservative Kentucky, according to data from Pew Research.
Mr. Cameron, the GOP challenger, was elected attorney general in 2019 with 58 percent of the vote. The next year, he gained national attention for his involvement in the case of Breonna Taylor, a Louisville woman who was killed by police after they entered her apartment in a “no knock” raid to execute a search warrant.
Mr. Cameron, 37, fought mask mandates for COVID-19 and has been critical of Mr. Beshear for his handling of the pandemic. President Donald Trump has endorsed Mr. Cameron.
Mr. Beshear has led by an average of 6.2 percentage points in polls over the summer, though the most recent polls show him with a 9-point lead.
Louisiana
In Louisiana, Republican Jeff Landry is widely expected to defeat Democrat Shawn Wilson, flipping the statehouse back to red after Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards, who is constitutionally prohibited from seeking a third term, leaves office next year.
Republicans hold a supermajority in both houses of the Louisiana Legislature, and the state has supported GOP candidates for president in all but four contests since 1956. However, the governor’s mansion has traded hands consistently since the mid-1990s.
Mr. Landry, 52, was a one-term congressman, losing reelection after his district merged with another following the 2010 census. He was elected attorney general of Louisiana in 2015 and reelected in 2019.
Mr. Landry is running on a pro-life, family, and law and order platform. He is one of 19 state attorneys general who signed a letter to the Biden administration in July saying they need access to information about residents who obtain abortions and minors who undergo gender-reassignment procedures in other states. He has been endorsed by President Trump and the Family Research Council and has received a 100 percent rating from the National Rifle Association.
“Crime was the No. 1 issue on the voters’ minds here in Louisiana,” Mr. Landry said in a May campaign ad. “I don’t need any more statistics other than that. That’s real people seeing real things and having real crime affect them.”
Mr. Wilson, 54, holds a doctorate in public policy from Southern University and served various roles in Democrat administrations until being named Louisiana’s secretary of transportation in 2016. He resigned that role in March to run for governor.
He is running on a platform of kitchen-table issues including the economy, education, and health care and has stressed his ability to work in a bipartisan manner to get things done.
Mr. Landry leads Mr. Wilson by 18 percentage points.
In Louisiana, all candidates, regardless of party, are listed on the same ballot in the primary election. Any candidate who wins a majority of the vote is elected. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff election is held between the top two primary candidates.
Sixteen candidates will appear on the ballot for the primary on Oct. 14. A runoff election, if needed, will be held on Nov. 18.
The governorship has been won in the primary contest four times in the last 40 years, three times by a Republican and once by a Democrat.
Mississippi
Mississippi’s Republican Gov. Tate Reeves leads Democrat opponent Brandon Presley by double digits in recent polls.
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