Latest Poll Shows Tight Arizona Senate Race, Trump-Endorsed Kari Lake in Close Contest

Multiple public polls show the U.S. Senate race in Arizona between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Ruben Gallego tightening.

Additionally, an internal Republican poll finds Lake with a 1 percent lead in the contest.

The two are running to replace independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking re-election.

Lake faces Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the state’s July 30 GOP primary, while Gallego, an Arizona congressman, is unopposed in the Democratic race.

According to the political site FiveThirtyEight, public polls as recently as last month found Gallego with a 10 to 13 percent lead over Lake.

However, in the most recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, the Democrat held only a 4 percent advantage.

The poll was conducted June 13-18 among a sample of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

The Emerson poll came on top of an AARP survey, conducted May 28 to June 4 among 1,358 likely voters, that showed Lake trailing Gallego by just 3 percent, 48 to 45 percent.

Additionally, Axios reported Thursday that it obtained a National Republican Senatorial Committee memo to donors saying its internal polling has the race as a dead heat.

The committee described public polling in the race as “misleading.”

“The NRSC thinks undecided voters in the Arizona Senate contest will break for Lake, arguing [President Joe] Biden’s popularity is under water with that bloc of voters,” Axios said. “The memo also points to former President [Donald] Trump’s polling lead over Biden in the state, saying his performance will influence down ballot races.”

Lake shared what appears to be the memo on social media Thursday evening that Axios reported about, along with a message she said came directly from Trump.

🚨 MESSAGE FROM TRUMP 🚨

President @realDonaldTrump is so thoughtful. He saw the polling that shows us both WINNING, he sent me this… it made my day!

Chip in to help secure VICTORY! ⤵️https://t.co/2OpN9mTbX6 pic.twitter.com/mTlx7AfRhG

— Kari Lake (@KariLake) June 21, 2024

The Real Clear Polling average shows Trump with a 4.6 percent lead over Biden in the Grand Canyon State as of Friday.

In a Thursday news release, the Lake campaign said, “The latest poll in the race for U.S. Senate in Arizona shows Kari Lake leading Ruben Gallego by 1-point, 47% to 46%, among likely voters in an NRSC internal poll.”

“The poll aligns with others conducted by credible pollsters, showing the race as a statistical tie, including the bipartisan AARP Poll conducted by President Trump and Joe Biden’s pollster,” the campaign added.

📥INBOX – NEW POLL: @KariLake Leads Ruben Gallego in Arizona’s U.S. Senate Race #AZSen pic.twitter.com/6HB2r2nf9Z

— Alex Nicoll (@realalexnicoll) June 20, 2024

“Arizonans overwhelmingly disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance. Soon, Arizonans will learn just how closely Ruben Gallego is tied to Joe Biden and his radical policies – voting with him 100% of the time – and they won’t approve of his record either,” it said.

Party control of the Senate may come down to the results in the Arizona race.

Democrats currently have a one-seat advantage in the chamber, including four independent senators who caucus with the party.

Republicans are expected to pick up the West Virginia seat currently held by retiring Democrat Joe Manchin, which would bring the breakdown to 50-50 if the party control of the seats otherwise stayed the same.

In addition to Arizona, states where Republicans have a good chance to flip a seat include Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Disclosure: Floyd Brown, one of the owners and founder of The Western Journal, is serving on a volunteer basis as chairman of Kari Lake’s Senate campaign.