Arizona Takes Center Stage in Race for U.S. Senate Control

Political vitriol is at a fever pitch around the country as the race for control of Congress enters the final stretch.

In the U.S. Senate, 35 seats out of 100 are up for re-election on Nov. 8, with Democrats currently controlling 14 of those seats and Republicans controlling 21.

Fifteen of the 35 seats up for re-election are considered “Solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report—nine are “Solid Democrat;” three on each side lean “D” and “R,” and one is “Likely R.” Only four are considered a “toss-up.”

These “toss-up” seats have drawn the nation’s eyes as they’ll determine who controls the U.S. Senate going into 2023. One of those seats is in Arizona, where Republican candidate Blake Masters hopes to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly.

Fight for Control

Right now, Democrats control 48 Senate seats, and Republicans control 50. However, there are two independent seats, and they caucus with Democrats, effectively dividing the Senate 50/50 and giving Vice President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote. She votes with the Democrats, giving Democrats a working majority.

Because the margin of control is razor-thin, if Republicans net just one of the toss-up seats on Nov. 8, they’ll gain control of the Senate with 51 seats. For Democrats to solidify their Senate control, they’ll need to successfully flip a “Leans R” or “Likely R” seat.

From 1952 to just before the 2020 elections, Arizona was considered a reliably “Red” state despite Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) defeating incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) in 2018. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by 3.6 percentage points.

The U.S. Capitol in Washington on the evening of Aug. 6, 2022. (Anna Rose Layden/Getty Images)

But in 2020, President Joe Biden won the state of Arizona by 0.3 percentage points. And in a November 2020 special election, Kelly successfully

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