Austin Bay: Ukraine Demonstrates War Reserve Stockpiles Are Vital

The Ukraine War, regardless of what happens on the battlefield, already has a clear victor: That small group long-range planners, logisticians, and military analysts who insisted “cutting corners in maintaining war reserve stocks was a false economy…”

Definition of war reserves stocks: Warfighting material produced in peacetime, or left over from a conflict that was not yet fought, that is kept in readiness for use in a future conflict.

Full disclosure: StrategyPage.com is my associate editor. The following was my contribution “cutting corners” Quote from StrategyPage April 2016. “Procurement” Update that addressed the shortage of majors “smart” Air-delivered munition was created in response to the NATO war on Libya in 2011. The U.S. and its allies were unable to carry out operations in Syria and Iraq in 2015 due to the shortage. Why? It takes money and time to replenish depleted war materials stockpiles, particularly munitions.

Budget items that are rarely covered by the media include long-range stockpile replenishment, and anticipated munition spending.

Senior Pentagon officials will have to admit when asked to testify. “munition expenditure” depends on the situation — who is fighting (America or an ally?What time the fight takes place (next week or 10 years)?Where the fight takes place (Taiwan or Syria, Poland? and the weapons systems necessary to win the battle. To do this, you need to have military judgment, budget foresight and an assessment of U.S. and international interests. You also need estimates of future manufacturing capacities and a thorough knowledge of oh, many thousands of weapons systems, munitions, and how they’re used.

A typical Beltway scenario “Oh, so your request is based on a guess, General?” The Bronx congresswoman snarks. Gee! I think we have just discovered money to fund the critical race theory program that I love.

StrategyPage republished the 2016 quote this month in an update. Why? Because the Ukraine War has shown “deep preparation” For war matters, the Beltway is interested and major media are also interested.

The larger operational phases witnessed on the battlefield are reflected in the Ukraine’s demand for weapon systems supplied by the West and the munitions spending rate.

Russia began ground and aerial operations in February 2022. Russia relied on helicopter and aircraft strikes as well as armored column (tanks, armored infantry vehicles), and tanks. The Kremlin tried to maneuver and conduct a mobile conflict.

Trump had provided Ukraine infantry-portable Javelin Anti-Tank Guided Missiles, (ATGMs) by his administration. It was a great help. It was a godsend because the Ukrainian soldiers were skilled in using them, and they destroyed Russian armored posts. It helped that poorly-trained Russians couldn’t integrate infantry tanks and tanks into effective combat teams.

Russia is denied air superiority with U.S. Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and British Starstreak portable antiaircraft missiles

The Russian offensive was defeated with the help of Ukrainian valor and Western high-tech weapons.

By mid-April 2022 Western nations had provided Ukraine with some 90,000 portable anti-tank and air defense weapons — a lot of weapons.

We move to the more static phase — the artillery slugfest reminiscent of WWI.

According to my estimates, the U.S. supplied Ukraine with approximately one million 155mm artillery guns. StrategyPage reported that the U.S. reduced its reserves of artillery shells for war. South Korea has replenished some of the U.S. production shortfalls, giving the U.S. more time to increase its production. StrategyPage says, however, “the 155mm shell reserves won’t be restored to 2021 levels until 2027 or 2028.”

The U.S.-made Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System has been Ukraine’s star artillery weapon. This rocket system was fired by the HIMARs wheeled missile launcher. GMLRS is a very intelligent weapon. Although I haven’t seen any estimates of the number of rockets that were fired, it must be in the thousands.

The GMLRS, a crucial Army and Marine weapon on any battlefield, is also of great utility in a war against China. It is necessary to replace the rockets that have been used.

StrategyPage made the same point in its report for all U.S. Munitions: “While European NATO nations don’t have to worry about their major threat, Russia, while they rebuild their war reserves, the Americans have to plan for potential conflicts elsewhere, like China, North Korea and Iran.”

Congress must fulfill its obligation and replenish the U.S. ammunition stockpile.

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