Betting Odds Take Radical Shift in Favor of Harris, Trump Still Leads by Slight Margin
In early November, the prediction market for the U.S. presidential election witnessed notable fluctuations, particularly concerning Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Leading up to mid-October, both candidates had similar odds, but Trump’s chances surged significantly by the end of October, reaching approximately 64.2%, while Harris fell to around 35.8%. However, a brief surge for Harris saw her odds improve to 47%, only to drop again shortly after as Trump’s likelihood of winning climbed to 56%.
Key battleground states showed varying predictions, with Harris being favored in Michigan, while Trump’s chances appeared stronger in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Despite these state-specific disparities, overall predictions indicated a 59.4% chance of a Trump victory across the election. Various platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, provided these odds, which were distinct from traditional public opinion polls, highlighting the complexities and rapid changes in the electoral landscape as the campaign progressed.
November opened with a sudden shift in the prediction market for the U.S. presidential election, but a surge by Vice President Kamala Harris lasted less than a day.
The odds of who will win the race between Harris and former President Donald Trump have fluctuated throughout the campaign.
For example, at Kalshi.com, up until about Oct. 10, Harris and Trump were about even, with the odds of one winning going up a point or so here, down a point or so there.
Live Odds Update for Battleground States on Kalshi
AZ
🔴Trump: 71%
🔵Harris: 29%PA
🔴Trump: 52%
🔵Harris: 48%MI
🔴Trump: 38%
🔵Harris: 62%GA
🔴Trump: 68%
🔵Harris: 32%WI
🔴Trump: 46%
🔵Harris: 54%NC
🔴Trump: 69%
🔵Harris: 31%NV
🔴Trump: 61%
🔵Harris: 39% pic.twitter.com/JqINc6KQfP— Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 1, 2024
Trump gained steadily throughout most of October, hitting a high water mark in the odds market on Oct. 28, when the odds of him winning hit 64.2 percent while Harris bottomed out at 35.8 percent.
Then came a Harris surge that peaked Friday with the odds of Trump winning going down to 53 percent while Harris was at 47 percent.
I don’t care what the #Polymarket says. My family and I are voting Trump/Vance like our lives depends on it. Because it does.
Don’t get cocky, folks!
— Andres A. Aguilar (@andres_glr) October 29, 2024
On Saturday, however, Trump’s odds of winning increased, hitting 56 percent while Harris was at 44 percent, with the odds fluctuating hour by hour as new polls and new sound bites emerged.
For example, over at Polymarket, Harris was rated as the favorite to capture the important swing state of Michigan, with the odds of her winning the state at 58 percent against Trump’s 42 percent.
Kalshi said Harris had a 63 percent chance of winning the state against only 37 percent for Trump.
Despite the oddsmakers predicting Michigan will not go Trump’s way, Polymarket said there is a 59.4 percent chance of Trump winning the election against a 40.7 chance of Harris winning.
Polymarket projected that Trump would win the swing states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia, while Harris would take Michigan and Wisconsin.
Polymarket also gives Republicans an 81 percent chance of taking control of the Senate and Democrats a 51 percent chance of taking over the House.
The prediction odds are what are used by folks who put up money on the contest and are odds as determined by the sites, not public opinion polls.
This isn’t Polymarket, this is an actual national average poll. Trump is winning in all swing states ❤️🔥 but still…you MUST vote. It’s your American right and civil privilege!! If you don’t vote I’ll have @StevieStacks84 come to your house and Myrtle will slap the F out of you. pic.twitter.com/C2d6YEioqf
— Chad🍂🔮👽❤️🔥 (@chad_coleman23) November 2, 2024
Over at RealClearPolling, Harris has a .3 percentage point lead in the average of polls for Michigan. She won the most recent Michigan poll listed by RealClearPolling, which was taken by Marist, with a 3 percentage point lead, which was within the margin of error for the poll.
Real Clear Polling gives Trump a national .3 percentage point lead over Harris.
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