Memo suggests Biden has a ‘golden opportunity’ despite defections in crucial voting groups
Breaking Down Voter Trends in the 2024 Election
A new memo analyzing 11 recent polls has shed light on how two crucial voter groups could influence the upcoming 2024 election, tipping the scale in favor of either former President Donald Trump or President Joe Biden.
The Biden “Defectors” and Nikki Haley Voters
The Blueprint memo, released recently, delves deep into the group of Biden “defectors” – individuals who voted for Biden in 2020 but are now leaning towards Trump for the upcoming election. Additionally, the memo examines voters who initially supported former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in the GOP primary, now labeled as “up for grabs.”
Evan Roth Smith, the polling firm’s head, highlights the dynamics at play: “These Haley voters are being pushed away from the Republican fold due to growing disapproval of Trump and the party’s shifting ideology.”
The memo suggests that Biden has a “golden opportunity” to attract Haley voters following her exit from the primary race. Notably, the number of Haley voters in key swing states surpasses the winning margins in those states during the 2020 election.
Policy Alignments and Demographics
The data reveals that Haley voters resonate more with Biden than Trump on pivotal issues, spanning democracy, healthcare, abortion, and the conflict in Ukraine.
Smith shares insights into the demographic makeup of Haley supporters, underlining that a significant portion are independents, with a lean towards Biden in policy preferences.
- Registered Republicans: 20%
- Independents: 80%
- Democratic-leaning: 37%
- Republican-leaning: 18%
- Non-leaning: 25%
Furthermore, the word association test conducted by Blueprint paints a vivid picture of how Haley voters perceive Trump and Biden. Trump is linked with terms like “selfish” and “dangerous,” while Biden is associated with ”liberal” and “experienced.”
Embracing the Shift
Smith emphasizes that Biden’s campaign has the chance to appeal to these voters by aligning policy visions and leveraging the dissatisfaction some feel towards Trump within the GOP.
As the memo delves into the demographics of Biden’s “defectors” who initially supported him but now lean towards Trump, it uncovers a diverse group that Biden could potentially sway towards his camp.
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