Biden loses independents, but not to Trump: Poll

President Joe Biden is losing independent voters rapidly, according to a recently updated polling average, but they aren’t flocking to former President Donald Trump.

A Cook Political Report survey showed Trump leading Biden independents 46% to 44% on June 27, and expanded his lead by July 10, where it showed him with a larger 46% to 40% lead. There is a 4% drop in independents favoring Biden, with no increase for Trump.

That indicates independents could be choosing not to vote, or are instead voting for third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Biden’s loss in support appears to emanate from his debate performance on June 27, which confirmed voters’ age-related concerns of him.

The polling shift between the two candidates, with Trump leading 47% to 44% among all voters, is “driven almost entirely by independent voters.” Independent voters are considered a critical voting group and are generally more easily swayed than Republicans and Democrats. Both candidates will be fighting for the independent vote, and according to the poll, Biden is losing.

Dave Wasserman, who wrote on the poll, said that “Biden’s post-debate dip represents the biggest polling shift we’ve seen all year.”

On Tuesday, Wasserman, a senior editor and elections analyst for CPR, said, “The notion that the presidential is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.”

Because of Trump’s growing electoral advantage, Democrats have called for Biden to step down and make way for a new Democratic nominee. So far, Biden has resisted those calls, and it appears he may have weathered the worst of the storm as some Democrats have come out in favor of him.

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The polling average also showed that Trump’s support among Latino and black voters is growing, now at 41% and 21% respectively, and CPR says his current numbers are “incompatible with any plausible Democratic victory scenario.”

CPR recently changed its rating for six different states, all moving in Trump’s favor. Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada were all changed from toss-ups to lean Republican, while Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nebraska’s 2nd District changed from likely Democrat to lean Democrat.