Biden’s China ambassador predicts ‘deal’ not ‘war’ over tariffs – Washington Examiner
The article discusses insights from Nicholas burns, the former U.S. ambassador to China during the Biden administration, regarding U.S.-China trade relations amidst escalating tariffs. Burns suggests that the recent tariffs imposed by President Trump are more of an initial negotiating tactic than a definitive step toward a trade war, emphasizing the importance of negotiation in international relations. He believes both countries are engaged in a strategic “chess match” rather than heading towards irreversible conflict.
Burns describes the tariffs as proportional responses rather than aggressive moves intended to destabilize the trade relationship. He predicts that a trade deal is more likely than a prolonged trade war, especially given the ancient context of previous negotiations between the U.S. and China. He notes that Trump aims to reestablish a positive rapport with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which he sees as crucial as Xi holds ultimate decision-making power in China. Burns concludes by stressing the importance of a summit meeting to resolve trade issues, indicating that direct dialog between the leaders is necessary for moving the relationship forward.
Biden’s China ambassador predicts ‘deal’ not ‘war’ over tariffs
Frightening predictions of a trade war with China over President Donald Trump’s new tariffs and Beijing’s response to U.S. “bullying” are being downplayed by the former Biden-era ambassador to Beijing.
Longtime diplomat Nicholas Burns said Trump’s move on Wednesday was likely an opening bid in the new administration’s path to a trade deal and a renewed friendly relationship between the president and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“It’s not a hiccup. It’s a major issue and a major challenge,” Burns told students at Harvard University, where he is returning as a professor.
But it’s just a first step, he added, in a chess match the United States and China seem to always be engaged in.
“I think that the 20% tariffs that President Trump has put on and the corresponding 20% tariffs that the Chinese have now applied to match us, they’re proportional. Neither has started from a level where they’re trying to set the world on fire or bring the house down in the trade relationship,” Burns said.
He added, “It’s just a guess from me, and I think from other people that we may be looking at the initial maneuvering and leveraging, which is customary in these types of negotiations. But I wouldn’t be surprised if by some point this year, maybe just before or at a first summit meeting, they end up in a trade deal rather than a sustainable sustained trade war.”
Burns, appearing at Harvard’s Kennedy School Institute of Politics, noted that Trump wants to revive the good relationship he had with Xi in the first administration.
“They’re using that right now to try to leverage themselves, our position. But I do think a sustained trade war wouldn’t be in the interest of either country, and that President Trump has been talking publicly about a summit meeting, and they made a trade deal the last time. So I think I would put my bet there,” said Burns.
Tariffs have long been a fact in U.S.-China trade. Burns said that former President Joe Biden maintained Trump’s tariffs and added his own.
🔴 LIVE in the JFK Jr. Forum: Nick Burns (@RNicholasBurns) discusses the many facets of the critical U.S./China relationship & his tenure as U.S. Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China under the Biden Administration.https://t.co/uG0omuvM01
— Institute of Politics (@HarvardIOP) April 1, 2025
Trump has not had much to say about his plans for China. That could become clearer in Thursday’s Senate confirmation hearing of the president’s pick to replace Burns, David Perdue, a former U.S. senator from Georgia.
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In the end, Burns said, for Trump to end up with a deal it would have to come during a summit because Xi has the final say in the communist country.
“From what I can see, President Trump wants to have a close relationship with President Xi, that was true of President Biden as well, and that they’ve been talking about a summit meeting. We’ll see if one is held. But in the Chinese system, you’ve got to get to that summit, because Xi Jinping is the person who decides everything, and so there has to be a summit meeting at some point for this relationship to take on a fuller dimension,” Burns said.
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