Biden’s reelection chances were in the ‘single digits,’ big money ally says

CHICAGO — Before President Joe Biden announced he wouldn’t seek a second term, his chances of winning reelection were in the “single digits,” the leader of a big money outside group charged with aiding his campaign said on Monday.

Chauncy McLean, head of Future Forward, a super PAC tapped by Biden’s reelection campaign in July 2023 to help reelect him in 2024, painted a grim picture of Biden’s chances against former President Donald Trump. Before Biden bowed out of the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, Future Forward’s polling models showed him losing under most scenarios, McLean said at a downtown Chicago event ahead of the opening of the Democratic National Convention.

Running against Biden, Trump, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, had multiple paths to winning a majority of Electoral College votes, 270 or more. That included beating Biden in some combination of Arizona, Georgia Nevada, North Carolina, and the “Blue Wall” industrial state trio that put him over the top in 2016 against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

McLean said Biden’s only chance to win was to capture Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s single electoral vote. That would add up to a bare 270 electoral votes, meaning the president had no margin for error.

“It was blue wall or bust for the president. It was a pretty white-knuckle ride to that one path,” McLean said at an event hosted by University of Chicago Institute of Politics founding Director David Axelrod and the Cook Political Report. “It was single digits.”

Super PAC groups, by law, have to operate separately from candidate campaigns. But the polling models of the group, helmed by McLean and other data gurus who worked on former President Barack Obama’s successful White House campaigns, no doubt mirrored what Biden’s own team was coming up with. It helps explain why Biden, 81, decided to hang it up even after winning the 2024 presidential nomination in primaries and caucuses over the winter and spring.

Polls repeatedly showed little faith Biden could be an effective president for another four years, while independent voters were deeply unenthusiastic about a Biden-Trump repeat fight.

“It was just a choice they hated,” McLean said in of the dining rooms at Manny’s Deli, an iconic Chicago eatery and favorite of politicians to meet and greet voters.

McLean’s group has become a top destination for large sums of cash from supportive billionaires and multimillionaires. Super PACs can accept donations of unlimited size, unlike federal candidates, who must abide by contribution limits. Future Forward has about $250 million set to be spent over two months between Labor Day and Election Day, McLean added.

As for the Harris-Trump matchup, the race is super tight right now, per the group’s polling models.

“Our numbers are much less rosy than what you’re seeing in the public polls,” he said. “We have it tight as a tick, pretty much across the board.”

Both campaigns can point to favorable poll numbers in the seven swing states where Harris and Trump are making the most appearances and the destination for the bulk of television and radio ads. Most polls are within the margin of error, meaning either side has a realistic shot at winning.

For Democrats, McLean said, “The good news is that Trump is incredibly well-defined.” As for Harris, he added, “I think the Republicans were hoping to paint her as more of the same.” But so far, she’s escaped that.