Black Sea the Scene of a Sudden Surge in Russian Navy Ships and Subs

Today, Russian Navy submarines and ships left their base at Novorossiysk in the Black Sea en-masse. This is unusual and could be a sign of ongoing operations.

Naval News was able to confirm this exodus through sources. The group also included Pyotr Morgunov’s amphibious ship, Project 11711 Ivan Gren, which is the largest in the Black Sea.

It also included all three Project 6636.3 Improved Kilo class submarines that were at the base. Analyses suggest that other warships were sailing as well, leaving just a few support vessels and warships in the port. It is probably the most empty Novorossiysk had been in for many months.

Since the 8th of October 2022, Pyotr Mournov has been able to bring supplies from Russia into Sevastopol. Ukrainian attack on Kerch bridge. The bridge is still limited in capacity, even though Russia has made some repairs. So the Russian Navy’s landing ships have been pressed into service as transports. The simultaneous sailing of the submarines indicates that this could be more than a resupply mission.

Possible Reaction To Ukrainian Threat

One explanation might be that the mass exit may be a drill to test the crews’ readiness. It could also be a precaution against an imminent threat.

The base is not within reach of Ukrainian aerial drones. On the other hand, despite its distance from Ukrainian controlled coast, it is within range of Ukraine’s maritime drones.

These small boats are loaded with explosives and are uncrewed. These drones are most well-known for their dramatic attack against Sevastopol, October 29. One of the drones was killed Novorossiysk, November 18. It did not cause any significant damage, but it sent the message that there is a base within reach.

Russia already had enhanced defenses in place at its naval bases. Warships and submarines are now protected with multiple floating booms. These booms are supposed to protect against maritime drone attacks. This explanation seems less convincing.

Operation offensive

One explanation is that Russian Navy assets are involved with the operation. We last reported an unusual event. Russian Navy Activity Seems to Have Risen It came before extensive missile strikes on Ukraine.

Kalibr cruise missile strikes on Ukraine were launched from submarines of the Improved-Kilo Class. After the September 2022 Ukrainian drone attack on Sevastopol, they were mostly withdrawn from Crimea. They return to Sevastopol every now and again to load Kalibr missiles. However, three of the five (four improved Kilo and one original Kilo) were still in Novorossiysk.

The mass exodus is not explained by this because each of them would have to be involved in an attack. Their sailing to Sevastopol would not be done in this manner. It is also not missile strikes, as the combination of amphibious vessels and submarines suggests.

Amphibious Landings are the boldest move

Amphibious landing is one possibility. It could be used to target the southwestern Ukraine in order to build a land bridge to Transnistria. This Russian-supported state unrecognized is a part of Moldova, bordering Ukraine. It has been known since the beginning that it is. within Russia’s wider war aims To join it.

The submarines will be used to cover missions or intelligence that surround amphibious ships.

An account of Russian advances made at the beginning, it seems unlikely that landings will ever happen. Landings have never been attempted, despite being threatened several times. The same naval infantry as marines was deployed inland at the same time. Their numbers are now very low and it will take several years or months to build up the naval infantry force. Regardless of all this, it is possible to conduct amphibious operations.

This development will be closely watched by analysts and commanders in Ukraine. This exodus without any backstory would be unnoticeable in peacetime. In the ongoing war, however, it takes on a different dimension.

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