Business Moguls Warn Banking Crunch Is Far From Over

Two well-known business leaders have predicted that the recent turmoil in the financial sector is not over yet and it is likely that more banks will face pressures. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which had a majority of large account holders, and then Signature Bank, prompted concerns about volatility in the financial system.

Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, stated in an interview with CNBC that there could be more bank failures, but account holders will never lose money on a deposit in an American bank, and therefore, should not panic. “Banks have never cost the federal government a dime. The public doesn’t understand that,” he said, noting that the Deposit Insurance Fund is financed by fees on banks, not taxpayer dollars.

Another expert, Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist of GMO, said in an interview with CNN Business that the best-case scenario in the stock market is a 25% decline. He added that we may experience other types of financial stress as well. Grantham is known for predicting the dot-com crash in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008. “We’re by no means finished with the stress to the financial system,” he stated.

Grantham blamed Federal Reserve officials for the financial strain, who previously implemented lower interest rates and induced bubbles that “break and inflict a lot of pain” when rates increase. The Federal Reserve had warned of a mild recession that could hit the United States in the second half of this year due to the volatility of the banking sector. The study from analysts at the National Bureau of Economic Research found that assets in the overall financial system are now $2 trillion lower than their book value due to higher interest rates.

According to the study, over one-third of the 4,800 banks analyzed wouldn’t be able to withstand all uninsured account holders trying to withdraw their funds, while 186 banks would not be able to withstand half of uninsured depositors asking for their money back. Both scenarios presuppose that the banks would not be forced to sell their long-term assets at fire-sale prices to cover withdrawals. But the scenario where all uninsured depositors are seeking to pull their funds is “likely too extreme, although not impossible once the news of a run spreads.”

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