California soaring costs could spell ‘devastating’ future for Golden State

California’s aging population is raising concerns as young people turn to other states for cheaper housing and a lower cost of living.

In the state’s largest city, the age gap is striking. Between 2012 and 2022, the number of residents in Los Angeles under the age of 10 decreased by 20%, and those between 10 and 19 decreased by 14%. Meanwhile, the city’s elderly population saw a significant increase, with the number of residents aged 60 increasing by 32% and those aged 70 increasing by 40%. California has one of the lowest fertility rates in the nation and is simultaneously experiencing the lowest birth rates recorded in over a century.

Los Angeles’s problems are mirrored across the Golden State. In 2022, only 11% of individuals who moved to California came from out of state. That’s the least of any state in the nation.

As the state’s baby boomers age and its elderly population expands, concerns are mounting that its workforce will not be able to support Golden State retirees sufficiently. According to the Pew Research Center, by around 2030, retirees are projected to outnumber children in the state.

Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning, and demography at the University of Southern California, expressed worry over the state’s aging population in an interview with the Los Angeles Times. Myers believes California’s high cost of living, including high housing prices, is pushing young people away. He warned the consequences could prove “devastating for the future.”

Last month, a new report showed California has four of the world’s most expensive cities in which to buy a home. The average home requires a household income of $224,000 to afford, or roughly three times the median household income. The state’s stringent environmental and zoning regulations, such as urban containment, have contributed to home unaffordability, placing steep costs on developers to build new homes.

In Los Angeles, officials have focused on affordable housing projects to bring down housing costs. However, critics say the county’s new “mansion tax” that subsidizes affordable housing projects is discouraging developers from building new housing, driving the cost of homes even higher.

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In April, a California district court struck down a state law that loosened zoning restrictions in order to spur homebuilding. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) signed SB 9 into law in 2021, allowing homeowners to build up to four units on lots the state previously reserved as single-family units.

However, in a lawsuit against the state in 2022, the city governments of Carson, Redondo Beach, Torrance, Del Mar, and Whittier said the legislation failed to mandate the single-family units be zoned as “affordable housing” units, violating the state’s constitution. California Attorney General Rob Bonta appealed the court’s decision last month.