Can Ukraine regain momentum in its third year of war with Russia
Retired Army General Ben Hodges: Ukraine Must Win the War Against Russia
Washington Examiner:
General, you were one of the people early on who believed that Ukraine could win this war despite Russia’s numerical and technological superiority on paper. How would you assess where things stand as we enter year three?
Hodges:
I absolutely believe that winning is still a possibility, and I would add that it’s essential that Ukraine wins this war for our strategic interest. Anybody who’s cracked open a history book knows that Russia will not stop just because of some negotiated settlement where they get to keep Crimea. So I think that the key is the United States and Germany declaring that it is our policy and in our strategic interest that Ukraine wins, that they defeat Russia, and then that we do everything possible to make it so.
Washington Examiner:
Now, at the time we’re having this conversation, at the very end of February, a kind of a gloom-and-doom narrative seems to be taking hold. Russia’s making some small gains on the ground, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to think the tide has turned in his favor, support in the U.S. Congress is weakening.
Hodges:
Well, you’re right. There is this sort of defeatist tone out there. I heard it when I was in Munich just two weeks ago during the Munich Security Conference. But the tone is not based on actual facts on the ground. And if the United States and Germany, in particular, and others would provide everything that we said we would provide, there would not be this tone.
Washington Examiner:
How significant are recent Russian advances, such as the fall of Avdiivka?
Hodges:
People talked about Avdiivka like it was Stalingrad, but if you look on a map, Avdiivka is about as far in eastern Ukraine as you can get. If the Russians really had the ability to exploit these local tactical successes, I’d be very worried. But I’m not seeing that at this time.
Washington Examiner:
What does Ukraine have to do in this coming year to turn the tide of battle back in its favor?
Hodges:
No. 1 is make Crimea untenable for Russian forces. Make it so that its air force, the navy, logistics, army cannot operate from Crimea. Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. I mean, if you look at a map, you can see that so long as Russia occupies Crimea, Ukraine will never really be able to rebuild its economy because occupied Crimea blocks access up into Azov Sea, where two of Ukraine’s former most important seaports, Mariupol and Berdyansk, are located.
Washington Examiner:
The United States and in particular Germany both have the kind of long-range weapons that Ukraine would need, if, for instance, it were going to try to take down the Kerch Bridge, that vital supply link from Russia to Crimea. Is the lack of those long-range weapons one reason Ukraine is on the back foot at the moment?
Hodges:
Yes. The long-range, precision weapons, of course, would give Ukraine the ability to destroy Russian headquarters, destroy Russian artillery, and destroy Russian logistics. Every square meter of Russian-occupied Ukraine, including Crimea and all the Donbas and the famous Kerch Bridge, are within the range of the U.S, 300 kilometer-range ATACMS or German Taurus missiles. Imagine if they had 50 or 100 ATACMS or Taurus missiles, what Ukraine could do. Every headquarters, every artillery unit, every logistics site could be hit. Knocking out the Kerch Bridge will be part of that. And of course, that will take a lot of capabilities, but it’s all doable. And if anybody can do it, it’ll be the Ukrainians. That’s the capability that Ukraine needs, but for some reason, we continue to stall, or as [German Chancellor] Olaf Scholz even said, it’s “out of the question.”
Washington Examiner:
Why do Biden and Scholz keep saying no? What are they afraid of?
Hodges:
I don’t understand it, but I think this is linked to the fact that we, the West, have not clearly defined our objective: that we want Ukraine to win. And we continue to deter ourselves out of, I think, an unreasonable fear that Russia might do something that might escalate. Russian nuclear weapons are really most effective when they don’t use them because they see that we limit ourselves.
Washington Examiner:
Is there reason for hope for Ukraine?
Hodges:
Well, of course. Look, war is a test of will and it’s a test of logistics. The Ukrainians clearly have superior will over Russians. There are no Russians who want to go fight in Ukraine. That’s why Russia is having to do things like grab people out of prison or kidnap people and put them into armed forces. Nobody wants to do it. And of course, the Kremlin doesn’t care how many people they lose. So it does come down to a test of logistics. Can we get Ukraine what they need, and do we in Washington and Berlin have superior will to Vladimir Putin?
What message does General Hodges have for the people of Ukraine who are fighting for their country’s freedom
, is within range of weapons that the United States or Germany possesses. So, this is an important capability that, if provided to Ukraine, could certainly turn the tide of the battle.
Washington Examiner:
You mentioned earlier that the United States and Germany need to declare that it is in their strategic interest for Ukraine to win. How important is that declaration?
Hodges:
It is crucial. The United States and Germany are the key players in this conflict, and their support for Ukraine is essential. By declaring that it is in their strategic interest for Ukraine to win, it sends a clear message to Russia that further aggression will not be tolerated. It also signals to Ukraine that they have the backing and support they need to stand up to Russian aggression. This declaration would strengthen Ukraine’s position both diplomatically and militarily.
Washington Examiner:
What role can the international community play in helping Ukraine win this war?
Hodges:
The international community has a critical role to play. It must continue to impose sanctions on Russia to pressure them to withdraw from Ukrainian territory. It can also provide military assistance, such as training, equipment, and intelligence sharing, to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Additionally, diplomatic efforts should be made to engage with Russia and find a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The international community must stand united in its support for Ukraine and its condemnation of Russia’s aggression.
Washington Examiner:
Lastly, what message do you have for the people of Ukraine who are fighting for their country’s freedom?
Hodges:
I want the people of Ukraine to know that they are not alone in this fight. The international community stands with them in their quest for freedom and independence. Their bravery and resilience are an inspiration to us all. Ukraine must continue to stand strong and united against Russian aggression. Victory is possible, and with the support of the international community, Ukraine can achieve it. The world is watching, and the people of Ukraine will not be forgotten.
In this article, retired Army General Ben Hodges emphasizes the importance of Ukraine winning the war against Russia for the strategic interests of the United States and Germany. He dismisses the defeatist narrative surrounding the conflict, stating that it is not based on the actual facts on the ground. He calls for the international community to provide the necessary support to Ukraine, including long-range precision weapons, to turn the tide of the battle. General Hodges also highlights the significance of declaring that Ukraine’s victory is in the strategic interest of the United States and Germany. He stresses the role of the international community in imposing sanctions, providing military assistance, and engaging in diplomatic efforts to help Ukraine. Finally, he sends a message of solidarity and encouragement to the people of Ukraine, assuring them that they are not alone in their fight for freedom.
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