Experts warn that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may resort to covert warfare to seize Taiwan.
As tension over the Taiwan Strait increases, the international community has been discussing the possibility of an imminent military attack on Taiwan by the Chinese communist regime.
Observers believe that the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping is unlikely to launch a military attack on Taiwan right away. However, they warn that the CCP’s covert warfare is more dangerous, which could use secret CCP members and sleeper agents in Taiwan to attack and sabotage from inside the island to cause Taiwan’s front-line military defense to collapse.
Since last year, the CCP has increased the frequency and scale of incursions into Taiwan’s airspace, while conducting more military exercises surrounding the island nation. Last month, the communist regime flew 103 military planes toward Taiwan in one day, setting a record high.
According to the latest “National Defense Report” recently released by the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of China (Taiwan), the CCP has intensified its threat toward Taiwan in recent years. Besides regularly deploying new fighters and drones, it has expanded three airports in Longtian, Hui’an, and Zhangzhou along the coast of Fujian facing Taiwan. Among the three, Longtian Airport is only 250 kilometers (255 miles) away from Taipei.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs Ely Ratner reiterated the U.S. position when asked at a think tank seminar in Washington on Oct. 5 whether China might invade Taiwan and the possible timetable. He said, “Conflict in the Indo-Pacific region is neither imminent nor inevitable, because deterrence is real and strong today.”
Military commentator Shen Zhou told The Epoch Times that the CCP’s current military capability is not enough to capture Taiwan.
Wang Juntao, co-chairman of the National Committee of the China Democratic Party who currently resides in the United States, told The Epoch Times on Oct. 6 that he thinks Mr. Xi won’t attack Taiwan in the short term because he is busy conducting a large-scale purge in the military and the CCP’s own military morale is low.
“[Xi Jinping] doesn’t want to provoke a war now and cause the whole Western world to impose immediate sanctions on China.”
However, in light of the CCP’s recent emphasis on increasing cross-strait economic and social integration, Mr. Wang warns that the outside world, especially Taiwan, needs to be more vigilant about the CCP’s covert operations.
“Xi Jinping wants to defeat Taiwan without a fight. Attacking Taiwan would be politically uneconomical for him, as he knows now the CCP is not strong enough, and attacking Taiwan will lead to a complete blockade of China.”
He believes that Mr. Xi’s next move must be to improve Sino–U.S. relations.
Covert Warfare
Mr. Wang pointed out that during China’s civil war (1945-1949), the CCP’s Army had two main methods of fighting. “One was to draw out the Nationalist government’s main forces to fight. The other, which is the most important method, was to plant secret CCP members in the nationalist-controlled big cities, recruiting more members and developing networks. Then they engaged in a coordinated campaign of sabotage, such as occupying power stations and water supply systems, etc. to terrorize people behind the front line. That’s how they defeated the nationalist military without a fight.”
He continued: “If the CCP wants to attack Taiwan, it must first use non-military means to develop secret CCP party organizations in Taiwan. When its troops start to attack Taiwan, these organizations can start to do things for them inside the island, such as form assault groups to occupy some places or set fire to key facilities, to create some chaos from behind. Then the military on the front line will collapse, because they will feel that something has happened and they’ve already lost.
“So now many people are talking about the U.S. military’s style of fighting a war, such as the regular positional warfare, but it’s not how the CCP fights.”
Infiltration
On Oct. 3, Chairman Lin Te-wang and Vice Chairman Cheng Chien-hsin of the “Taiwan People’s Communist Party” were accused of accepting financial aid from officials of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CCP in an attempt to influence Taiwan’s elections and promote communist ideology. These two have been indicted by the Taipei District Prosecutor’s Office for breaching the Anti-infiltration Act and the Civil Servants Election and Recall Act.
Taiwan has just unveiled its first domestically built submarine, as part of the indigenous submarine program. Meanwhile, it’s revealed that Kuomintang legislator Ma Wen-chun was accused of attempting to block the submarine program and leaking more than 3,000 confidential files on submarines to South Korean officials. As a result, several engineers who secretly assisted Taiwan in building submarines were arrested and sentenced after returning to South Korea. Taiwan’s judicial authorities have launched an investigation.
Former naval adviser for Taiwan Guo Xi also revealed on a live broadcast that Ms. Ma also sent sensitive submarine information to the Chinese Embassy.
Former Taiwan Air Force Deputy Commander and retired Lieutenant General Chang Yanting told The Epoch Times on Oct. 7 that Taiwan has indeed been deceived by the CCP in many aspects.
“The CCP is following a step-by-step approach, whether it is the united front strategy, dividing Taiwan society, or military pressure, which is quite worrying.”
He said that Taiwan’s main problem is psychological defense, not national defense, because without psychological defense, there is no national defense.
“The CCP’s military is already in the middle line of the Taiwan Strait, and everyone is used to it. The most terrifying thing is that everyone has accepted this fact, and not to strongly oppose it, giving up resistance. We often talk about how we need to strengthen our citizens’ defense mentality. This is Taiwan’s internal problem.”
How does the CCP’s covert warfare strategy pose a threat to Taiwan’s security?
T launch a military attack on Taiwan. Ratner stated that the U.S. is “committed to the maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” and that any military action taken by China would be considered a serious concern.
The increased tension over the Taiwan Strait has raised concerns among the international community. Taiwan has been a separate entity from mainland China since the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s. However, China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification.
Observers believe that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is unlikely to launch an immediate military attack on Taiwan. Despite the recent increase in military activities and incursions into Taiwan’s airspace, a direct military confrontation is not seen as a favorable option for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The potential for severe consequences, including international backlash and potential military intervention by the United States, makes a full-scale invasion a risky move.
However, experts warn that the CCP’s covert warfare strategy poses a more significant threat. The CCP could use secret members and sleeper agents in Taiwan to carry out attacks and sabotage from within the island. This could potentially weaken Taiwan’s front-line military defense and create internal chaos, making it easier for the CCP to gain control.
The CCP has been steadily increasing the frequency and scale of incursions into Taiwan’s airspace. Military exercises surrounding the island nation have also intensified in recent years. Last month, the CCP flew 103 military planes toward Taiwan in a single day, setting a record high. These actions are seen as a clear display of military power and a way to assert dominance over Taiwan.
According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, the CCP has further intensified its threat toward Taiwan by deploying new fighters and drones. It has also expanded three airports along the coast of Fujian facing Taiwan. The proximity of one of these airports, Longtian Airport, to Taipei raises concerns about the potential for a quick and decisive attack.
The United States has expressed its commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner reiterated this position at a recent think tank seminar in Washington. A military attack on Taiwan by China would be considered a serious concern and could potentially trigger a strong response from the United States.
In conclusion, while an immediate military attack on Taiwan by China seems unlikely, the international community is increasingly concerned about the CCP’s covert warfare strategies. The CCP’s actions, including the increased military presence and incursions into Taiwan’s airspace, are seen as a way to assert dominance and exert pressure on Taiwan. The United States has emphasized its commitment to peace and stability in the region, but the situation remains tense, and all parties involved must remain vigilant.
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