Census: Workers Haven’t Seen A Raise Since Trump Was POTUS

One of the seminal moments of presidential debates came in a 1980 tussle between the Republican challenger and the Democrat incumbent. Challenging Jimmy Carter’s record as part of his closing statement, Ronald Reagan asked: “Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago?”

Last Tuesday, in the very first question of her first presidential debate, Kamala Harris was asked that very thing — are Americans better off than they were four years ago? — and didn’t give a direct answer. But earlier in the day Tuesday, the Census Bureau provided the answer for her: No, they aren’t.

The annual census reports on poverty, income, and health insurance coverage show how Americans’ progress has stagnated over the past four years, thanks to “Bidenomics.” It explains why families consider the economy, and the nation, to be in such poor shape — a problem that Harris’ policies would only make worse.

Years of Missing Raises

On a superficial level, the census income numbers do provide some good news. In 2023, real median household income — that is, the income of the family at the absolute middle (the 50th percentile) of the income distribution, as adjusted for inflation — had its first statistically significant income increase in four years.

But dig deeper into the census data tables, specifically Table A-2 of the income report, and the problem becomes clearer. Inflation-adjusted household income in 2023 remained marginally below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels. That means Americans have missed out on four years of pay raises, to the tune of thousands of dollars:

2019: $81,210

2020: $79,560 ($1,650 less than 2019)

2021: $79,260 ($1,950 less than 2019)

2022: $77,540 ($3,670 less than 2019)

2023: $80,610 ($600 less than 2019)

The census data shows that Americans lost a total of $7,870 in household income over the last four years compared to what they would have had if household income had remained at 2019 levels for that entire period. Of course, if incomes had continued to rise, as they had during most of the four years prior to 2019, Americans would have benefited even more.

The same math applies to the average, as opposed to median, household income. It too has not yet exceeded 2019 levels when adjusted for inflation. And because average household income is higher than median household income (because millionaires and others in “the 1 percent” skew the average higher), it demonstrates that even relatively affluent households have suffered from economic stagnation under “Bidenomics.”

The same loss of purchasing power since 2019 appeared in last year’s census income report as well, such that few policymakers should be surprised that American families remain in a politically foul mood after years of struggling to tread water. The real surprise is why Harris thinks that more of the same policies from the past four years — more taxes, more government spending, and more regulation — will have anything other than the same result.

Growing Dependence on Government

The census report on health insurance coverage, also released on Tuesday, included a few interesting data points. While the number of individuals with health insurance did not change in a statistically meaningful way, the composition did, and in a way consistent with Democrat policies.

Specifically, the number of Americans with employer-provided coverage declined by a statistically significant 0.7 percent, while the number of people with health insurance purchased via the Obamacare Exchanges increased by 0.4 percent. In raw numbers, that amounts to 1.6 million individuals losing employer plans, with nearly 1.5 million joining the exchanges.

This development comports with recent Congressional Budget Office estimates suggesting that, if enhanced Exchange subsidies get extended next year, 3.5 million individuals would lose employer coverage, because “employers would change their offers of health insurance.” It is entirely possible that, even before Congress makes a decision about whether to extend the “temporary” enhanced subsidies, businesses are already dropping coverage and dumping their workers onto the Exchanges to receive taxpayer-funded benefits.

Lower incomes, higher government spending and inflation, and fewer people with private health insurance — such is life under Joe Biden, which would continue under his second-in-command, Kamala Harris.

Chris Jacobs is founder and CEO of Juniper Research Group, a policy consulting firm based in Washington, and author of the book “The Case Against Single Payer.” He appeared in the 1995 “Jeopardy!” Teen Tournament and is on Twitter: @chrisjacobsHC.