China Has Reasons to Keep Its Cool Following America’s Downing of Spy Balloon

Article content

BEIJING/HONG KONG — China may respond to the U.S. shooting down its suspected spy balloon after warning of “serious repercussions,” Analysts say that any move would be carefully calibrated to avoid worsening the ties that both sides are trying to repair.

Regional analysts and diplomats are closely watching China’s response after a U.S. fighter jet shot down the balloon – which Beijing says was an errant weather-monitoring craft – in the Atlantic off South Carolina on Saturday.

Article content

Article content

China condemned the attack on Sunday as an act desecration “over-reaction,” It stated that it retained the right to use any necessary means to address the matter “similar situations,” Without exacerbating.

Analysts said that they will be monitoring the skies and seas of East Asia for signs and symptoms of tension due to the increasing deployments of aircraft and ships from China and the United States, and their allies.

However, bilateral tensions have risen in recent days due to the balloon incident. Washington and Beijing are trying to improve their ties.

The United States postponed a visit by Antony Blinken to Beijing due to the discovery of the balloon above North America’s upper atmosphere. The November summit between Presidents Joe Biden, Xi Jinping had led to this trip.

Article content

Both sides are widely seen as keen to stabilize relations after a turbulent few years, with the Biden administration leery of tensions descending into conflict and Xi eyeing a recovery for the world’s second-largest economy after a severe COVID-19 slump.

Zhao Tong, a senior scholar at the China office at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and a visiting researcher from Princeton University, stated that rebuilding U.S. relations with China is possible.

“The two sides still have a shared strong interest in stabilizing and responsibly managing the bilateral relationship,” Zhao shared his thoughts with Reuters.

SWEEP UNDER RUG

Collin Koh, a security fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, predicted China would continue to respond vigorously to U.S. military reconnaissance patrols but stop short of confrontation.

Article content

Even in calmer periods, Chinese forces often shadow U.S. military operations, especially at sea. This is because of tensions over Taiwanese sovereignty and the South China Sea.

“Against manned platforms we might expect China to exercise restraint, but against unmanned ones it becomes more uncertain – especially if Beijing believes that it’s possible to contain fallout since it involves no crew,” Koh stated.

He noted China’s seizure of a U.S. underwater glider deployed by an oceanographic research ship off the Philippines in December 2016. Later, the Chinese navy returned it to a U.S. military vessel.

Christopher Twomey, security scholar at U.S. According to the Naval Postgraduate School, China’s response will be limited. “I’d expect they’d protest moderately but hope to sweep this under the rug and reinstate progress on senior-level visits within months,” Twomey spoke in private.

Article content

Zhu Feng (executive dean of Nanjing University School of International Studies) said that U.S. officials need to stop “hyping” events will ensure a smooth return of normalized communications that they previously requested from Beijing.

Zhu expressed his hope “the two governments can turn the page as soon as possible so that Sino-U.S. relations can return to an institutionalized channel of communication and dialog.”

Some analysts are watching Chinese state media and online activity for hints at any clamor for a tougher response, as China’s mainstream state media have stuck to reporting official statements.

On China’s heavily censored social media, there was little evidence that nationalistic anger was being stirred up over the incident, with many netizens asking what the fuss was over one balloon.

“Now, China can retire its satellites!,” One user laughed. (Reporting by Ryan Woo in Beijing, Greg Torode Hong Kong; Editing done by William Mallard