China pressuring Guatemala’s new president, Bernardo Arevalo, to sever ties with Taiwan.
China’s Push to Persuade Guatemala to Cut Ties with Taiwan
Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping’s regime is making a concerted effort to isolate Taiwan and increase its geopolitical influence in Central America by convincing Guatemala to sever ties with the island democracy.
“China’s going to be moving aggressively on Guatemala, that’s for sure,” Heritage Foundation visiting fellow Joseph Humire told the Washington Examiner. “I’m concerned that they’re gonna flip.”
Uncertainty Surrounding Guatemala’s Stance
There is uncertainty regarding the stance of Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arevalo, as he made comments during his campaign that hinted at a willingness to strengthen trade relations with China.
“We hope that the new government of Guatemala will make the right decision in the fundamental and long-term interests of its country and its people,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday. “We hope the new government of Guatemala will make the right call in line with the fundamental and long-term interests of its country and people.”
Despite Arevalo’s attempt to clarify his position towards Taiwan, some American observers remain skeptical of his intentions.
“I would hope that he would say something like, you know, ‘For us, there’s only one China and it’s Taipei.’ Something like that, where … it was rather airtight in terms of which side they were on,” Dr. Ryan Berg, who directs the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Washington Examiner. “The cautionary tale is if you try to have it both ways, that’s a recipe for dumping Taiwan later.”
However, other analysts are more optimistic, noting that Arevalo’s rhetoric towards Taiwan improved as the campaign progressed.
Chinese officials have also achieved a diplomatic victory in Central America, as the Central American Parliament voted to replace Taiwan with China as a “permanent observer” of the organization.
“This again shows that the one-China principle represents the unstoppable trend of the times and has the overwhelming support of the people,” Wang said. ‘China stands ready to develop friendly cooperation with the Central American Parliament on the basis of the one-China principle.”
If Guatemala were to sever ties with Taiwan, it would have significant implications for the region and enhance China’s influence in the Western Hemisphere.
While the Biden administration has indirectly supported Arevalo by pressuring Guatemalan authorities to ensure a fair election, the outcome is still uncertain.
“It’s not a foregone conclusion that Arevalo is going to abandon Taiwan,” Humire said. “But it definitely would follow a trend that’s happening in Latin America.”
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