Chinese Strategists Are Taking Notes as Russian Military Stumbles
There is no doubt that militaries all over the world will seek to incorporate the lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War in shaping future warfare patterns. These lessons include the use tanks and anti-ship cruise missiles as well as the ubiquitous drones. These lessons may be even more important for the Chinese military because the People’s Liberation Army has not had much combat experience and relies heavily on Russian weapons, doctrine, and weaponry to modernize its army in the past few decades.
The extensive coverage by Chinese media of the conflict in Ukraine was extensive. The closeness of China-Russia “quasi-alliance” Chinese military analysts have not been able to engage in the same harsh criticisms of Russian military performance as those who have been used in West countries. Chinese military analysts are still looking for lessons to better understand modern warfare. They are especially interested in U.S. strategies and the use of novel weapons.
For a deeper understanding of the Chinese analysis, it is necessary to look at assessments from all the Chinese military media. It is much more extensive than the West often appreciates. These articles are usually associated with research institutes involved in the Chinese army industrial complex.
This series is exclusive for The Diplomat and will represent the first systematic effort by Western analysts to assess the Chinese assessments of the war on Ukraine across the entire spectrum of warfare including land, sea and air, as well as information domains.
China has been very critical of U.S., NATO’s policies in the Ukraine War. However, Beijing has not yet opted to send military aid to the Kremlin, although this could change. The U.S. government It seems that everyone believes. China is reviewing its position. It doesn’t matter if Beijing decides to support Russia more directly, but it is evident that Chinese strategists are constantly trying to learn military lessons from the most intense inter-state war since World War II.
The People’s Liberation Army has mostly resisted criticism of Russia’s military performance throughout the conflict in Ukraine. Recent developments however, have made it clear that the PLA is not a fan of Russia’s poor military performance. Article From January 12, 2023 the PLA Daily published a report on Russian military reforms. It contains rare criticisms of the Russian military performance against Ukraine. This newspaper is China’s top military periodical and may therefore be considered authoritative. This article might also offer a glimpse into China’s inter-service military politics.
The PLA ground forces might be calling for increased troop numbers and renewed investment after seeing the poor performance by Russia’s army in the last year. Dennis J. Blasko is a prominent U.S. expert in the PLA. Assessed The ground forces of China were the “biggest loser” Xi Jinping’s radical reforms to the armed forces have both benefited “now and far into the future.” Blasko also revealed that the PLA saw a 55% decrease in ground troops between 1997-2018. Blasko revealed that the PLA saw a 55% reduction in ground troops between 1997 and 2018.
PLA analysis of Ukraine War may indicate that the PLA ground forces might be looking to alter this trend. “The outcome of the land battlefield is still the key to the outcome of the war,” The article declares.
This is a positive sign that the PLA does not view the Russian invasion in Ukraine through rose-colored glasses. Although they might admit that a hypothetical invasion by Taiwan would not be easy, It could also result in extremely high personnel losses and equipment damage, not to mention the risk to the Chinese armed forces’ prestige at home and abroad.
Rebuilding the Army
Uncharacteristically, the article does not give a fair assessment of Russia’s military performance in Ukraine. The analysis concludes Russia’s military and ground forces were too weak to achieve their goals. The main weaknesses of Russia’s army can be described as a shortage of troops, particularly in terms of manpower, and major deficiencies with joint combat capabilities.
According to this Chinese military assessment the most critical criticism is that Battalion Tactical Group combat unit has not been able to perform the task. The report states, “Deficiencies of the Russian battalion-level tactical groups have been exposed, such as their lacking the ability to be self-sustaining in combat and that they are too weak to be effective.”
The report names the brigade unit, perhaps in an attempt to avoid a conflict with Taiwan. “unable to effectively fight protracted and high-intensity conflicts of attrition.” The reform proposed is “to transform from a brigade back to a division system.”
The report reveals that Russia has moved back to a division-based system and also highlights how much Russia’s ground forces have been reduced in size since the start of the war. The report notes that the army of a million people is now “barely able to perform homeland mobile defense and overseas garrison missions.”
This could also hint at PLA concerns that China’s ground force may be too undermanned. China’s National People’s Congress has recently passed a new “a href=”. This could be related to Russia’s manpower woes in Ukraine.http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/c30834/202212/675bfdf572d1440d89e29080e7310b6f.shtml”>Reservists Law.
According to the Chinese military analysis, Russia will expand its airborne forces into two full assault units and five marine divisions. These two types of specialized forces, which would be crucial elements in a Taiwan scenario, would be the most important for China. They would also likely take on the brunt of the initial fighting. Russia is taking measures to combat the shortage of manpower. “improving the military service recruitment system” “perfecting the equipment and material reserves systems.”
Reinforcing the Value of Combined Operations
The PLA Daily assessment acknowledges that Russia has had to struggle with combined arms in addition to manpower problems. “The Russian military has been unable to effectively execute combined warfare,” It says.
Western analysts speculate on the lack of Russian airpower in the battlefield. Chinese analysts criticize the Russian Air Force for not having sufficient air power. “executed too few sorties,” And says that “the effectiveness of precision strikes was inadequate and coordination with the army was limited.” Russia’s solution is to propose assigning “mixed aviation division and army aviation brigades” To each army unit to improve “integrated air-ground operations.”
Information warfare is also a topic of great interest to Chinese strategists. It is also assessed in the PLA analysis. “the Russian army’s informatization combat capability is insufficient.” According to this understanding, Russia has not been able to effectively carry out information warfare. “They have had to rely on traditional tactics of mechanized warfare.”
Based on their analysis of U.S. military forces deployed in the Balkans during the 1990s/2000s, the PLA I believed it. Future combat would be information-based. It will rely heavily on, “non-contact warfare” (非接触战争). In practice, this meant long-range precision strikes at the periphery conflict zones. The PLA questions Russia’s ability to peacefully govern Ukraine using long-range strikes.
Three areas are expected to be prioritized in order to address Russia’s information warfare inadequacies. These areas include an increased use of automated command system, with priority given for equipping combat units lower than the battalion with command automation terminals and greater adoption drones. Squad and platoon level will see the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, to enhance battlefield situational awareness, communicate real-time information and improve the overall effectiveness of the combat system. “reconnaissance-strike loop” (侦察-打击回路效能).
The Russian Army recognizes the importance of equipping the lowest ranks of troops and commanders, with ISR platforms, to accelerate target acquisition, reconnaissance and attack speed. This finding, based on the U.S.’s adoption of drones and UAVs, is expected to increase drone use at all levels of PLA forces and each of its service branches.
Playing the Nuclear Card
The article is particularly attentive to Russia’s repeated nuclear warnings. The PLA analysis shows that Russia is not as strong in conventional military power as it should be, but that Russia relies on its nuclear deterrent for balance against NATO and the United States. Russia is identified as having resisted collective Western pressure. “conducting nuclear exercises, raising the level of nuclear force combat readiness, and warning that the third world war will be a nuclear war.”
Although this seems to be a controversial point, the article credits Russia’s use conventional hypersonic weapons as having a deterrent impact against NATO. “the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles show determination and strength and deter NATO from direct military intervention.” This could be a reflection of the PLA’s confidence that their strategic rocket force can deter U.S. involvement in the Indo-Pacific. China, like Russia, has missiles that can be used for conventional or nuclear strikes. “dual use” In nature.
Conclusion
China is often surprising transparent. The PLA Daily article gives a candid assessment of Russian military mistakes, despite refraining from criticizing the weak Russian military performance against Ukraine. The article draws three conclusions. The PLA is closely watching and learning from the Russian military lessons in Ukraine. These lessons may also be used by the PLA ground force to gain a higher profile in China’s inter-service battle for resources and influence.
Finally, this analysis indicates that the PLA understands very clearly that the war in Ukraine has been no cakewalk for Russia – to put it mildly. The resulting skeptical outlook will hopefully be applied to Taiwan. Beijing’s main lesson could be that even high-intensity conflicts that appear promising on paper can quickly turn into long, grueling wars for attrition with significant risks of escalation.
It is unclear if the Chinese leaders see this simply as a series military technical issues to be solved or as a warning to avoid conflict in the first place. While we hope the latter, there is significant evidence in Chinese-language that Beijing strategists are trying to fill the gaps that the PLA sees in the Ukraine War.
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