CNN Analyst: Deeper Look at Polls Shows Kamala Harris Win Would Be ‘Historically Unprecedented’
A CNN data analyst, Harry Enten, has indicated that Vice President Kamala Harris faces significant hurdles in her presidential campaign due to public sentiment regarding the current administration. He emphasized that only 28% of Americans believe the country is on the right track, which mirrors typical approval ratings associated with losing incumbents. Historically, no party has retained the presidency when this figure is so low, reinforcing the challenges Harris might encounter.
Enten clarified that for a reelection win, an administration typically needs a higher percentage of public approval, around 42%. Current statistics show President Biden’s disapproval rating significantly exceeds his approval, further complicating Harris’s campaign outlook. The analysis suggests that without a distinct platform differentiating her from Biden, Harris could struggle as the election approaches. This combination of low public approval and discontent with the administration could prove detrimental to her electoral prospects.
One critical number could mean that Vice President Kamala Harris has little hope of winning the presidential election, according to a CNN data analyst.
Harry Enten said the biggest problem Harris faces is being part of an administration that most Americans think is not helping the country.
“If we look at whether voters believe we’re on the right track or the wrong track, I think that this sort of gets at a problem for Kamala Harris’s campaign. Just 28% of Americans think the U.S is on the right track,” he said, according to a video posted on RealClearPolitics.
According to Enten’s data, the average approval rating for incumbents who lose an election sits at around 25 percent which “looks a heck of a lot like” Harris’ 28 percent.
The president’s party has never (at least back to 1980) won another term in the White House with so few Americans saying the U.S. is on the right track (28%, today).
The average when the prez party loses (25%) is far closer to today’s number, though there is a bit of a twist. pic.twitter.com/hZtWRMW9mn
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 4, 2024
Enten said that the picture is different for a popular administration.
“When the White House party wins — Kamala Harris’s party, the Democrats – 42 percent on average think that the country is on the right track,” he said.
Enten noted that the current approval rating is hovering near the average of losing administrations.
“This to me is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’s campaign. The bottom line is, it looks a lot more like a loser than it does like a winner,” he said.
Enten noted that the lowest approval rating a winning president received was 39 percent in 1996, which was the year former President Bill Clinton was re-elected.
Enten delivered his bottom line: “There is no historical precedent for the White House party winning another term when just 28% of the country thinks that we’re on the right track. Simply put, it would be historically unprecedented.”
On the eve of his return to Butler:
Donald Trump takes his biggest lead yet in Daily Mail election model as he gains ground over Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania https://t.co/xoqffY3mR8— Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) October 4, 2024
“You‘re very much in the danger zone when we‘re looking at that right track, wrong direction number, that’s where Democrats are right now,” he said, according to Fox News.
In a separate analysis on CNN, Enten said disapproval of President Joe Biden will carry over to Harris.
Amid various crises, it’s quite striking that Kamala Harris *still* hasn’t offered anything of substance on the question of how she differs from Joe Biden, her unpopular co-incumbent. What does she think Biden has gotten wrong? What would she have done differently? Crickets: pic.twitter.com/81z6YhEEKm
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 3, 2024
“The incumbent’s party has never won when the president had higher disapproval ratings than approval ratings,” he wrote.
“Biden’s disapproval rating right now is about 10 points above his approval rating,” he wrote, adding that that statistic and the of Americans who think the nation is on the right track “are just two indicators of public opinion that are bad for Harris’ chances in November.”
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