CNN Data Analyst Reports Why Swift Endorsement May Have to Matter for Dems — And It’s Bad News for Kamala

It may seem laughable — the idea that, just moments after the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump concluded, pop icon Taylor Swift released an endorsement in which she signed off on her support for the Democratic nominee as a “Childless Cat Lady” for Harris-Walz.

“I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them,” Swift said in an Instagram post.

“I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos. I was so heartened and impressed by her selection of running mate @timwalz, who has been standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body for decades,” she continued.

“I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice. Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make. I also want to say, especially to first time voters: Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it’s much easier to vote early. I’ll link where to register and find early voting dates and info in my story.”

 

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A post d by Taylor Swift (@taylorswift)

So, this is meaningless blather, right? It’s an attention-sponge sponging Kamala’s attention just minutes after the debate ended, and that’s it.

Well, as CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten pointed out in a Thursday segment, the Democrats had better hope it’s a little more than that.

First off, it’s probably helpful to do a bit of a rewind here to remind ourselves of exactly why Joe Biden was still in the race despite his obviously declining health — mentally and physically — and why he was eventually persuaded to drop out.

Biden and his people essentially believed that the president was the only person who could hold together the coalition that propelled the Democrats to victory in 2020: older working-class Rust Belt unionites, more progressive young voters, and a broad coalition of ethnic, racial and religious minorities.

What became increasingly clear is that the coalition was falling apart — partially among minorities, but especially among younger voters. The idea was that, by trading out Biden for Kamala Harris, whose appeal is specifically tailored to young leftists, they’d at least sew up that segment of the vote while addressing weaknesses among black and Latino voters with a minority candidate. They could convince the hard-hats later.

However, that’s not quite how it worked out, as Enten spelled out on air when talking about why Swift’s endorsement looms so large.

“Why does she need the help? Well, let’s just point out something that I have been noting all along during this campaign, and that is the underperformance that both Joe Biden and now even Kamala Harris has among young voters,” Enten said, before turning to a graphic charting polling data from the Cook Political Report.

“So, this is the Democrat versus Trump margin among voters age 18 to 29 or under the age of 30. You go back four years ago at this point. Look, Joe Biden had a 28-point advantage. A 28-point advantage over Donald Trump. Now, you look when Joe Biden dropped out of the race, he was up by just seven points,” he said.

“Now, Kamala Harris has improved on Joe Biden’s standing. But look at this. She’s only up by 15 points.”

Re the talk around Swift with young voters & voter registration, Harris & Democrats are struggling on both counts vs Sept. 2020.

Harris’ margin w/ voters under 30 is 15 pts — far worse than Biden’s 28 pts. Also, the GOP has made big gains vs. Dems in NC/PA voter registration. pic.twitter.com/uFq3ek89tB

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 12, 2024

“That is significantly less than Joe Biden was up at this point among the youngest voters in our electorate. It’s only about half the margin that Joe Biden was pulling in,” Enten said.

“So, Kamala Harris will absolutely welcome in the support of Taylor Swift if she can move young voters at all, because the bottom line is Kamala Harris is, in fact, not doing as well among young voters as you might expect a Democrat to necessarily be doing based upon history.”

Wait — are we saying “joy” and “vibes” hasn’t broken through? She’s had campaign events that were basically concerts! Her veep candidate making dirty jokes about the other veep candidate that only young, Very Online™ voters would get! Pretty much every celebrity not named Taylor Swift endorse her! What more do you need?

If you need Taylor Swift to win young voters, unfortunately, you probably need a lot more.

Just to be clear, while Swift has been identifiably a liberal for some time now, her one experience wading into a political contest was a 2018 Senate race in Tennessee. That race was basically a toss-up between former Democrat Gov. Phil Breseden and GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn.

Swiftie-mania was only slightly less of a thing six years ago than it is now, but Taylor’s endorsement of Breseden in her state of residence did nothing — or less than nothing, considering the race was statistically tied in the polls when Swift made the endorsement and Blackburn ended up winning by almost 11 points.

But again, Breseden didn’t face the same kind of challenges that Harris did. Even if she did win the debate — it was a 3-on-1 contest, given the moderator bias, so this was hardly surprising — the polls were still disappointing for Harris given the media-gasm she’d received in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. And when debates tip the scales, it’s usually among those who are already tuned into the race.

Given the general apathy toward the Democratic ticket from young voters this time, and the lack of a massive rebound given the switch to Harris, no amount of debate spin is likely to fix that underperformance in what may be Kamala’s most important demographic.

So there you have it: In Swift they trust. That’s not exactly an inspiring thought for Kamala’s campaign — especially when they realize their fate may be hitched, in part, to a woman who became profoundly famous for singing about her failed relationships.

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