While the eyes of the world are focused on the war in Ukraine, Congo is fighting an expanding insurgency in the country’s east against the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group, which has been on the offensive for the past month. Eyeing the critical mineral deal President Donald Trump is striking with Ukraine, Tshisekedi is hoping to use his country’s vast mineral wealth to earn U.S. support.

WHY IS WAR BREAKING OUT IN THE CONGO?

“President Tshisekedi invites the USA, whose companies source strategic raw materials from Rwanda, materials that are looted from the [Democratic Republic of Congo] and smuggled to Rwanda while our populations are massacred, to purchase them directly from us the rightful owners,” Tshisekedi spokeswoman Tina Salama wrote on X earlier this week.

She added that the offer was expanded to Europe as well.

Tshisekedi is banking a significant amount on a possible deal. According to a Feb. 20 filing under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, viewed by Africa Confidential, Kinshasa hired U.S. lobbyists on a $1.4 million, yearlong contract to deliver “strategic engagements to advance defense security and critical mineral diplomacy with the United States government.”

Despite being one of the poorest countries on Earth, Congo is one of the most mineral-rich. The country produces significant amounts of copper, diamonds, gold, and cobalt, making up over 80% of the world’s production of the latter. Of particular interest to the U.S., Congo produces significant amounts of 3T minerals — tin, tungsten, and tantalum — minerals used in virtually all consumer electronics.

The growing war in the country’s east is believed to be largely driven by critical minerals in the mineral-rich provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu, the capitals of which have been seized by M23. Rwanda, a landlocked country roughly one-89th the size of Congo, has utilized Congolese minerals to heavily boost its economy.

A United Nations report found that 150 tons of coltan, a vital resource used in smartphones and other electronics, were “fraudulently exported to Rwanda and mixed with Rwandan production.” Congo estimates that Kigali is earning $1 billion in annual revenue from the smuggled metals, a massive amount for a country with a $13.3 billion GDP.

Tshisekedi’s proposed minerals deal is likely to particularly interest the U.S. due to China’s monopoly on Congolese mineral production. According to the U.S. Army War College, Chinese state-owned enterprises control 80% of Congolese cobalt production. The monopoly extends to refining cobalt, with Chinese enterprises controlling between 60% and 90% of cobalt refineries. China relies on this cobalt for many growing industries, such as electric vehicle production.

In an interview with the New York Times, Tshisekedi said the U.S. has already expressed interest in a minerals deal with Congo.

M23 and Rwanda are already believed to have boosted their share of critical minerals, looting them from Congolese mining companies as they expand their territory. A Congolese civil society mining group alleged that M23 and Rwandan forces besieged and looted the mining facilities of the Congolese mining company CJX Minerals in the city of Bukavu, seizing over 10 tons of 3T minerals.

A December 2024 U.N. report alleged that M23 had become a de facto extension of the Rwandan military. The report argued that roughly 4,000 regular Rwandan troops were operating alongside M23, sometimes fighting Congolese forces alongside them. M23 itself now resembles a conventional army, with uniforms, modern equipment, and advanced tactics rather than the ragtag militia group it once was.

Most directly, the Rwandan military had “de facto control” over M23 command, and “Every M23 unit was supervised and supported by [Rwandan Defence Force] special forces.”

Despite being widely viewed as the aggressor in the conflict, Rwanda remains one of the most popular sub-Saharan African countries, its international standing buoyed by its pro-Western stance and impressive growth. Western feelings of guilt over a failure to prevent the Rwandan genocide, when roughly 800,000 Tutsis were systematically murdered in 1994, also play a role.

The U.S. took a major symbolic step against Rwanda on Feb. 20, sanctioning Rwandan Minister of State for Regional Integration James Kabarebe and Lawrence Kanyuka Kingston, a spokesman for the Rwandan-backed M23 and the Congo River Alliance. Two companies linked to Kanyuka, the U.K.-based Kingston Fresh and Paris-based Kingston Holding, were also sanctioned.

The sanctions were the first major action the U.S. took against Rwanda. The United Kingdom went a step further by suspending all financial aid to Kigali.

Rwanda has been heavily reliant on Western aid and investment, meaning the U.S. still has many financial levers to pull. Threats of sanctions previously caused Rwanda to suspend support for M23 in 2012, but experts warn that this time around could be different.

US SANCTIONS RWANDAN OFFICIAL AND REBEL LEADER AS WAR EXPANDS IN EASTERN CONGO

Ben Shepherd, a consulting fellow at the U.K. think tank Chatham House, told the Financial Times that Kagame could have assessed that obtaining Congolese minerals is worth the risk of dwindling international aid.

“Maybe this is Kagame reading the room accurately,” Shepherd said. “Getting in there early and creating facts on the ground — regardless of costs to Congolese civilians and regional stability.”