Cook Political Report moves Nevada Senate race to ‘lean Democrat’ as polls move left

Vice President Kamala Harris‘s campaign appears to have Democrats excited about more than just the presidential race now that several key Senate races appear to have tilted to the left.

The Cook Political Report shared its poll, which shows Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania leaning more toward Democrats since the last poll in May. The Wisconsin Senate race has gotten closer but still shows Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) leading by 7%.

The most dramatic polling shift was in the Nevada Senate race, which had shown Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) leading Republican Sam Brown by 7% in May but now shows Rosen’s lead up to 18%. The same poll shows, in the presidential race in Nevada, former President Donald Trump leading by 3% over Vice President Kamala Harris, after Trump led President Joe Biden by 9% in May.

The wider lead shown by Rosen in the Nevada Senate race made the group change its rating in the race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.”

“Given Rosen’s lead and her ability to outrun first Biden, and now Harris, on top of her significant financial edge, we are shifting our rating back from ‘toss-up’ to ‘lean Democrat.’ Republicans maintain that when spending tightens, and Brown is able to communicate at a more competitive edge, the race will close once again, and even Democrats still view this as one of their most competitive races,” the Cook Political Report‘s Jessica Taylor said in her analysis announcing the rating change.

Despite the shift in the Senate race, the group is still keeping its rating of Nevada in the presidential race as a “toss-up.”

Nevada is one of several states that has a “lean Democrat” rating from the Cook Political Report for its Senate race but a “toss-up” rating for its presidential contest. Other states with this split include Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Control of the Senate will likely come down to if Republicans can oust one of the Democratic incumbents in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, Ohio, or Nevada, or win the Arizona seat held by outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). If Democrats hold on to all of these seats, control of the chamber would be decided by who wins the White House.