Cori Bush could be next ‘Squad’ member ousted over more than just Israel

Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) is facing an uphill battle as she prepares for a competitive primary that shows her losing more ground each day against her pro-Israel opponent, a sign that she could be the next “Squad” member on her way out.

Bush is facing St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell on Tuesday in what has been a rocky campaign for the incumbent due, in part, to her vocal criticism of Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack, calling the counteroffensive an “ethnic cleansing campaign.” The Israel-Hamas war has sowed divisions within the Democratic conference, which has spelled disaster for progressive “Squad” Democrats as pro-Israel organizations have made it their personal mission to remove them from office.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has succeeded once already, after the lobbying group and its allies dumped millions into Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-NY) race in New York’s 16th Congressional District. Bowman was ousted by Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who is likely to win the general election in November.

In Bush’s case, AIPAC’s PAC, the United Democracy Project, has spent $7 million to oust the Missouri congresswoman, according to campaign finance records. The $7 million is part of a larger $100 million plan to unseat Israel critics. 

Israel turns into flash point for Bush’s reelection

While Republicans are being hit for social matters, abortion, and gun control, Israel is a major thorn in the Democrats’ side after Hamas attacked the Jewish state on Oct. 7, 2023. Most congressional Democrats are staunch supporters of Israel, while progressives, such as Bush, Bowman, and Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), have called for a ceasefire and the Biden administration to stop funding Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Bell, who has been vocally critical of the Missouri congresswoman’s calls to end the “occupation” of Israel, has significant local support in the district and has outpaced Bush in fundraising, ending April with $1.1 million cash on hand to Bush’s $528,000. As of that filing, the attorney had received more than $360,000 in individual contributions earmarked as having been directed to his campaign through AIPAC. 

AIPAC recently came under fire for claims that the United Democracy Project altered a photo of the congresswoman for a campaign mailer, a move that Bush slammed as racist and shameful. The PAC has denied the allegations. Bell did not respond to requests for comment on whether he denounced the distorted image.

Bush versus Bell matchup shaped by Black Lives Matter movement

Missouri’s 1st Congressional District is solidly Democratic — particularly after 10 years ago, when the death of Michael Brown, a black man, at the hands of a Ferguson police officer rocked the community and made national headlines. The district was an epicenter for the Black Lives Matter movement that only grew in 2020 after the death of George Floyd. 

Bush, a nurse-turned-activist, ousted longtime Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay in the 2020 elections in part thanks to the momentum and outrage from both Brown’s and Floyd’s deaths. In Bell’s case, the high-profile nature of Brown’s death helped him win a seat on the city council and eventually oust former St. Louis County Prosecutor Bob McCulloch, who declined to charge Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson for shooting and killing Brown.

In the 2022 midterm elections, Bush outspent her more centrist Democratic opponent 5-to-1 and easily won the primary. However, now she is losing steam against Bell, who has outraised Bush 2-to-1 and leads Bush by 6 points, 48% to 42%, according to a poll from the Mellman Group on behalf of the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC.

Once a foregone conclusion that Bush would win reelection, now the congresswoman is in danger of losing her seat. Her statements about ending “Israeli military occupation and apartheid” and that she won’t be silent about “Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign” angered many in the St. Louis Jewish community, which is divided between the 1st and 2nd Districts.

Support among black voters will be critical for Bell and Bush. Recent census figures show 46% of the 1st District’s population is black, and national polling shows that black voters are not making decisions on candidates based on their feelings about the Israel-Hamas war.

Bell has capitalized on Bush’s anti-Israel stance but also has focused on her voting record in Congress and recent controversies as a way to reach more voters. Bush also faces scrutiny over hiring her husband as her security detail. The congresswoman announced in January that she was the subject of a Justice Department investigation. She has continued to pay her husband for the last six months despite the inquiry.

Some groups, like the National Black Empowerment Action Fund, spent the days leading up to the primary going door to door to educate voters on Bush’s record. As a 501(c)(4) group, it cannot endorse. However, Darius Jones, leader of the organization, said the group is advocating against Bush in the primary due to her stance on key issues that don’t reflect the wishes of her constituents.

Jones told the Washington Examiner that the NBEAF went to over 10,000 doors in Missouri’s 1st District and found that “personally, Cori Bush is popular.”

“But what we noticed was that when folks learned more about her actual record in Congress, her legislative achievements or lack thereof, and also when they kind of learned her true positions on some major issues to the African American community … folks were profoundly disappointed in her leadership and in the direction that they think she’s taking the district,” Jones said.

A poll conducted by the organization and shared with the Washington Examiner found that 84% of black constituents preferred a member of Congress who focuses on governing on critical issues rather than far-out rhetoric and engaging in “divisive conversations.”

Jones said that when Bush was elected to Congress in the wake of Floyd’s death, there was a need for the community to focus on social justice matters. Now, while those issues are still important, Jones said, public safety and economic empowerment are top priorities for black constituents in Bush’s district.

The advocacy leader pointed to Bush’s comments about defunding the police and wanting to decriminalize drugs. 

“If you’re a black person and you already feel like you live in a community that’s not safe, knowing that your member of Congress is in D.C. pushing for these kind of policies that are not in your best interest — folks were alarmed when they heard that,” Jones said.

For her part, Bush is not going down without a fight. She has blasted Bell over his career as a prosecutor, including the fact that he did not reopen the case against Wilson. Her final campaign ad before the primary features Brown’s father, who says that Bell “never brought charges against the killer … [and] failed to reform the office.”

Bush has tried to tie Bell to Republicans over the support he received from AIPAC and Fairshake, a pro-Trump-funded venture capitalist firm. AIPAC supports both Democrats and Republicans. She has the endorsement of St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones and several key labor unions, while other labor unions that used to endorse Bush threw their support behind Bell. 

Ferguson Mayor Ella Jones has endorsed Bell. She told local NPR affiliate STLPR that one of Bell’s strengths is his visibility throughout St. Louis County, including in predominantly black cities that do not have trustworthy relationships with law enforcement agencies.

“He does have a record here,” Jones said. “Every time there’s something going on in Ferguson, you see Wesley. If something is going on in Dellwood, you see Wesley. He’s visible. He’s just here for the people.”

The Washington Examiner reached out to Bell’s and Bush’s campaigns for comment.