Could Ukraine Really Join NATO?

Could Ukraine Join NATO?

Henry Kissinger made headlines Last week, he brought up this possibility at Davos’ World Economic Forum. Appearing by video link, the elder statesman went so far as to call Kyiv’s membership You can find the alliance an “appropriate outcome” of the war.

It is difficult to imagine.

Vladimir Putin On the pretext that it was Christmas, ordered the invasion in Ukraine twelve months ago NATO expansion This constituted a serious national security risk to the Russian Federation. Assuming the Russian leaders are not going to change their mind (nor lose the capacity to menace Ukraine in some form or another), it seems implausible that NATO will want to make Moscow’s nightmares come true when the current war is over. If people in the West want the postwar era to be defined by anything close to a stable peace with Russia, then Ukraine’s membership of NATO can hardly be viewed as a prudent course of action.

Why would you poke the bear?!

NATO is a defence alliance, which exists to protect its members. This function has been performed admirably by NATO for the past year. Despite this, high-profile (and provocative) endeavors of NATO members to assist Ukraine’s war effort, there have been zero Russian attacks on NATO soil. On the contrary, the alliance continues to serve as a deterrent against Russian aggression and the ultimate guarantor of its members’ safety and survival.

It is difficult to believe that it is possible to argue (as some doIt was argued that Ukraine’s addition would improve the security of the alliance. Although Kyiv would be relieved to finally have a set of security assurances, it would also come at the expense of the other 30 alliance members (32 if). Sweden Finland (if they are granted accession), being in greater danger of war with Russia, a nuclear-armed country. NATO members should not take such chronic insecurity lightly.

For these reasons, Kissinger’s musings ought to be taken with a healthy dose of salt. Ukraine is not eligible to join NATO.

However, it is possible.

The most obvious circumstance under which NATO membership would become plausible is if the present war breaks decisively in Kyiv’s favor. For example, Ukraine could be victorious in joining NATO if it can expel Russian invaders from every inch Ukrainian territory. If Moscow becomes unstable and undergoes a change or collapses, this would make it difficult for Ukraine to join NATO. In such scenarios, there might be little to fear from Russia (for the time being) and so a window of opportunity would exist during which Ukraine’s accession could be attempted.

Even if Russia and the war end in a deadlock, NATO membership For Ukraine, it could still be possible. NATO expansion could seem logical and even inevitable if both Russia and West realize that Ukraine’s survival as an independent country is a core security concern of the Western alliance. It was unlikely that anyone on either side believed it to be true before February 2022. Putin. The West has now gone to great lengths to support Ukraine, and has even risked a potential conflict with Russia doing so. It might be reasonable to conclude that Ukraine is more important to NATO than previously thought. Now the question is: Why? Not Provide Kyiv with a formal security umbrella

This is because all defensive commitments must seem credible and believable. Credibility depends on a mutual understanding of the material interests. Ukraine’s admission into NATO was a non-starter so long as nobody believed that the other NATO members would actually follow through on any security commitments made to the country. If the experience of this war reveals that, in fact, NATO members are willing to fight and die for Ukraine—which, to be clear, has not happened yet—then the case for formal membership of the alliance will be made stronger.

There is a huge difference between the two. arming Ukraine Its fight against Russia promising To wage World War III on Ukraine’s behalf. However, it is plausible that NATO leaders might be convinced that formal security guarantees are the best way for another war to not happen. This means that they may conclude that Russia cannot invade Ukraine again by using the threat of mutual ruin. This is evident in repeated calls for the United States of America to declare “strategic clarity” More Taiwan.

It is difficult to imagine what the final settlement between Russia, Ukraine and NATO will look like right now. Part of the problem is that, even if Russia ends the war in a much stronger bargaining position vis-à-vis Ukraine (and thus in a position to demand concessions from Kyiv), it is all but guaranteed that Moscow will emerge from this conflict as a much-reduced power in comparison to the West. The transatlantic alliance members will have the greatest say in a postwar peace agreement. “regionalized” Instead of “localized” Ukraine. It is not difficult to imagine NATO expansion as part of such a large restructuring of Europe’s security architecture.

Analysts can only attempt to predict the future. It seems more likely than not that Ukraine would remain outside NATO after this war ends. For the foreseeable, Kyiv is unlikely to receive formal security assurances from any foreign power. Armed neutrality The simplest way to ensure Ukrainian security against another Russian invasion is the one that’s most direct.

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Kissinger, however, has not lost his head. Ukraine’s membership of NATO might yet be viewed as an “appropriate outcome,” He put it this way: All depends on how the war progresses and whether violence on the battlefield can be converted to political change in Europe or North America. It is impossible to predict how much of this will happen in the future.

Expertise and experience as an author: Peter Harris Colorado State University is home to an associate professor of political sciences. He is also a non-resident fellow with Defense Priorities and a contributing editor at 19FortyFive.

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