Crime issue doesn’t hurt liberals in Wisconsin and Chicago

Despite growing public dissatisfaction with progressive criminal justice policies, concerns about crime were not enough to prevent liberal candidates from winning this week. Democrat Brandon Johnson, who supported defunding the police in 2020, defeated Paul Vallas, a centrist Democrat who campaigned on fighting crime, to become Chicago’s next mayor. In Wisconsin, Janet Protasiewicz, a liberal judge, won the state Supreme Court race, shifting the ideological balance of the court to the left.

Their victories signify that crime may not have the political potency that Republicans hoped for, much like their disappointment with the results in November. Instead, abortion became a decisive issue in both races, mobilizing more educated, middle-to-higher-income voters who consider themselves independent and typically vote Democratic.

Vallas faced criticism for his opposition to abortion due to his Greek Orthodox faith, while Kelly struggled to challenge his views on the issue. Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel admitted that her party has a messaging problem on abortion, and many Democratic candidates find themselves on the defense about crime due to their party’s lenient approach, which has lost popularity.

Despite polls showing crime as a weakness for Democrats, they do not have enough support throughout the party to move towards a tougher stance on crime. The movement for criminal justice reform in 1994 was led by the African American community concerned about crack cocaine devastating the community. However, until the leaders of the African American community switch their position on this, it will be hard for the Democratic Party to switch positions as well. Recent race results suggest that Democrats do not need to pivot, and other factors, such as a significant difference in campaign contributions, worked against Republicans’ fortunes this week.

Ultimately, the focus on crime failed to overshadow progressive priorities in off-year elections, motivating more voters to turn out. Although there are signs of the national Democratic Party shifting away from a lenient approach to crime due to rising concerns, the failure of tough-on-crime candidates in more races could convince the party such a shift may not be necessary.