Debate wins that propelled past campaigns and potential 2024 contenders who may emulate them.
Primary Debates: Boosting Presidential Campaigns
Primary debates have proven to be make or break moments for several campaigns, propelling candidates on a clear path to the White House. With the first Republican primary debate of the 2024 election cycle just days away, candidates are eagerly preparing to seize the national spotlight and give their campaigns a much-needed boost. Let’s take a look at three instances when primary debates helped shape a presidential campaign and explore which 2024 candidates could benefit from a similar moment in the GOP debates.
1980 Republican Primaries
In the 1980 Republican presidential primaries, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan was expected to be the runaway candidate after his near-upset against then-President Gerald Ford in the 1976 GOP nominating contest. However, Reagan faced unexpected challenges on his path to the nomination, including a loss to former CIA Director George H.W. Bush in the Iowa caucuses.
Ahead of the Republican primary in New Hampshire, a local newspaper planned a debate between Reagan and Bush, excluding other Republican candidates. This exclusion led to a legal dispute, as it would have been considered an illegal campaign contribution. Reagan’s campaign stepped in to cover the costs, but insisted on including the other candidates. When the debate began, Reagan’s attempt to voice his desire for inclusivity was met with the moderator talking over him.
Finally, Reagan, frustrated with being silenced, boldly declared into the microphone, “I’m paying for this microphone, Mr. Green!” The crowd erupted in cheers, and this standout moment helped revive Reagan’s lagging campaign. Ultimately, Reagan went on to secure the Republican nomination and win the presidency in both 1980 and 1984 by landslide victories.
In the 2024 Republican primaries, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) could benefit from replicating Reagan’s shining debate moment. Despite being viewed as the presumptive lead challenger to former President Donald Trump, DeSantis has faced lagging poll numbers and doubts about his candidacy. A powerful debate moment could help him regain momentum and live up to the hype surrounding his campaign.
2016 Republican Primaries
In the 2016 Republican primaries, Donald Trump, an outsider in the political arena, utilized his experience on television and as a celebrity to his advantage. His constant presence in the public eye helped propel him to the White House and maintain a strong lead throughout the primary.
Trump’s sparring matches and clever nicknames for his fellow candidates played a significant role in his surge in the polls. His exchanges with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, once considered the favorite for the nomination, ultimately led to the decimation of Bush’s campaign.
Unsurprisingly, Trump himself would want to replicate this kind of performance in the 2024 Republican primaries. His unorthodox style and ability to dominate the headlines helped him secure victory over a crowded GOP field. As the most recent GOP president, Trump has an inherent advantage, but he will need to perform similarly to his 2016 debates to convince voters that he still possesses the same charisma and appeal.
2020 Democratic Primaries
In the first Democratic primary debate of the 2020 cycle, then-California Sen. Kamala Harris had a breakout moment when she delivered a powerful critique of the front-runner, former Vice President Joe Biden. Harris confronted Biden on his opposition to busing as a means to end racial segregation in schools, drawing on her personal experience as a black woman affected by the policy.
Her impassioned speech resonated with the audience as she stated, “That little girl was me.” Biden attempted to defend himself but stumbled by prematurely ending his defense, saying his time was up. This weak showing caused Biden to drop in the polls, while Harris experienced a significant surge in her numbers.
Although Harris would later face her own debate flub and drop out of the primary, she was ultimately selected as Biden’s running mate, and together they won the 2020 election.
In the 2024 Republican primaries, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), or entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy could benefit from replicating Harris’s debate moment. These candidates are within striking distance of gaining traction, and landing a powerful blow on Trump or DeSantis could pave a more viable path toward the nomination for their respective campaigns.
The first Republican debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is scheduled for Wednesday at 9 p.m. and will be televised by Fox News. The Democratic Party is not hosting debates, as incumbent President Joe Biden is seeking reelection.
The Republican National Committee has confirmed that eight candidates have qualified for the debate as of Friday. The candidates who have qualified include Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Scott, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, Ramaswamy, and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND). While Trump’s attendance remains unconfirmed, the other candidates are expected to participate.
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