Democrat Loss in PA Special Election Isn’t Related to Trump
In a surprising outcome, Democrat James Malone won a special election in Pennsylvania’s 36th state senatorial district, a region predominantly Republican, defeating Republican Josh Parsons by just 482 votes. This election result, noted for its significance in a historically Republican stronghold, has sparked discussions among political commentators.Some assert that the victory reflects a backlash against former President Donald Trump, a narrative that was reinforced by statements from Democrat Governor Josh Shapiro.
However, local political analysts contend that the real reasons for the election outcome are more complex, suggesting that disunity among Lancaster County Republicans played a crucial role. Thay assert that comparing the state Senate results to broader county election trends, which overwhelmingly favored Trump in past presidential elections, lacks accuracy due to differing voter demographics within the district.
Despite this upset, Republicans maintain control of the Pennsylvania Senate with a 27-23 majority, emphasizing that special elections can yield unpredictable results and do not necessarily signal broader political trends. With Democrats eager to flip Senate control, each electoral gain is seen as a step toward achieving that goal.
Democrat political watchers are elated at the stunning special election upset in a Pennsylvania state Senate race in solidly Republican Lancaster County, but their rush to cite Trump-hatred as the cause isn’t based in reality.
Democrat James Malone has won the 36th state senatorial district over Republican Josh Parsons, flipping the longtime Republican seat to Democrat with 482 more votes than Parsons. It was not quite a 1 percent margin.
The win was an incredible feat considering the 36th is a majority Republican district, with 97,834 registered Republicans, 55,243 registered Democrats, and 31,492 voters registered as members of other parties or nonaffiliated, according to data from the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Some in the propaganda press say the win is evidence of Democrat backlash to having Republican President Donald Trump in the White House, asserting that leftists are rallying to oust Republicans. Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro suggested the same idea on social media.
Locally, political operatives tell The Federalist that Lancaster’s Republicans are splintered and have not been working in harmony.
Many news outlets have been comparing the smaller, state Senate District 36 results (with 184,569 registered voters) to the full Lancaster County results (355,824 registered voters) in presidential elections, saying this district went big for Trump in the presidential election and now it has gone Democrat. But that is an apples-to-oranges comparison.
The 36th state senatorial district covers only a portion of Lancaster County, including right-leaning farmland and rural areas and portions of left-leaning Lancaster City. It is not the same footprint as the entire Lancaster County, which is larger and has far more rural area.
The full county went to President Donald Trump in the last three presidential elections, with Republicans choosing Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election by nearly 16 percent; Trump over Joe Biden in 2020 by the same margin; and in 2016, Trump over Hillary Clinton by more than 19 percent.
“The important thing is that Republicans still control the state Senate and remain a strong barrier against far-left legislation being passed and signed into law by the Democrat-controlled House and governor,” Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward told The Federalist. “Special elections are volatile, and their results can be unpredictable. The special election in the 36th District is a prime example of that.”
Republicans rule the Senate in a 27-23 majority.
A power struggle in the Pennsylvania House was settled in another special election on Tuesday. House power was tied at 101-101 after Democrat state Rep. Matthew Gergely died in January. The Pittsburgh area leans strongly Democrat, and Democrat Dan Goughnour won the seat over Republican Chuck Davis as expected, giving the Democrats a 102-101 Democrat majority. It has been close in the House for several years.
Democrats are eager to flip the Senate. As things stand, often the House passes a measure but can’t get it through the Senate. Every victory brings them closer to this goal.
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