Democrats target Anna Paulina Luna as vulnerable Florida incumbent following recent poll

EXCLUSIVE — Democrats, buoyed by a recent poll, are eyeing flipping Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s (R-FL) seat.

A poll commissioned by one of Luna’s Democratic challengers, Whitney Fox, suggested the freshman House Freedom Caucus member is more vulnerable than believed. While a generic poll has Luna up by 7 percentage points, 50% to 43%, the gap narrows to 51% to 46% when more biographical information is given.

When pollsters presented Luna’s positions on abortion, Medicare, and Social Security, Fox turned out on top, with 49% of the vote compared to Luna’s 47%.

“Our polling results clearly show Florida’s 13th Congressional District is in play this November and is the most flippable House seat in Florida,” Fox’s campaign manager James Corti said. “Whitney Fox has a clear path to victory against Anna Paulina Luna once voters learn about Luna’s self-serving political games and her extreme stances on abortion, Social Security, and Medicare, all while Floridians struggle with record-high costs.”

“Let’s not forget that Anna Paulina Luna underperformed other Republicans by 6 percentage points in 2022 when Democratic turnout was at a decade low,” he added. “With the Florida abortion amendment and Pinellas County as a hot spot for inflation, Fox is poised to defeat Anna Paulina Luna and end her attacks on democracy, women, and seniors.”

The poll could be affected by the wording of questions and information given to respondents.

“Luna falls behind Fox as voters learn about her extreme positions like supporting a national abortion ban without exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother, cutting Social Security and healthcare — removing the $35 cap on insulin, and blocking Medicare from being able to negotiate lower costs for prescription drugs,” the summary of the poll read.

Luna dismissed her Democratic opponents as “not serious” in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

“Last cycle, I was outspent 12:1. I told voters exactly who I was and have fulfilled every one of my campaign promises,” she said. “You cannot buy Pinellas County, and my constituents know I will continue to fight for them here in D.C. The DNC has attempted to recruit a few candidates against me as I am problematic for them regarding their identity politics indoctrination campaigns nationally. However, the six candidates running against me are not serious and should probably look into what Congress does. As of right now, many of them don’t even understand the basics when it comes to legislation.”

Luna won her last race by 8 percentage points. Fox’s team hopes that incumbent fatigue will help propel the Democrats to a victory, in addition to momentum from the repeal of Roe v. Wade.

Fox is also largely unknown — 6% of voters have a favorable opinion of her and 5% unfavorable, compared to 42% of voters having a favorable opinion of Luna and 32% unfavorable. Her team hopes this will play to Fox’s advantage as she garners more visibility.

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The Florida primary, held in August, is one of the latest in the country. Fox is expected to win, with a clear advantage in fundraising and endorsements.

The Cook Political Report has Florida’s 13th District as likely Republican at R+6.