Democrats’ top-of-the-ticket switch to Harris leaves congressional race chances murky

Democrats know they aren’t tying themselves to President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket in November. They will almost certainly be attached to Vice President Kamala Harris as their party’s presidential standard-bearer. Yet it’s unclear whether chopping half of the Biden-Harris ticket will improve downballot candidates’ odds of winning pivotal contests that could determine control of the House and Senate.

The unraveling of Biden’s reelection campaign was quick. It began with a disastrous debate performance on June 27 against former President Donald Trump, now the 2024 Republican nominee. It was followed up by two weeks of fending off an angry press corps and ended with a letter posted on X saying he was quitting the race, without any notice for Cabinet members or campaign staff. 

Biden was under immense pressure from the most powerful forces in his party to bow out of the contest, and his presence at the top of the ticket acted as a lead weight around the necks of downballot Democrats. Constant questions about whether the president was fit to complete his term, much less run for reelection, threatened to dampen Democratic spirits, all at a politically sensitive time, with House Democrats needing to net four seats in November to claim a majority and Senate Democrats trying to hold on to their perilous control of the chamber, with 51 seats to 49 for Republicans.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was reportedly prepared to present Biden with polling that contradicted what his inner circle was telling him and showed precisely how untenable the situation had become. If he didn’t step aside, Democrats were heading for defeat not only in swing states but in safe blue regions such as Virginia and New Mexico as well.

Bowing out of the 2024 contest wasn’t how Biden imagined his career would end. But he was lauded for his efforts as Democrats quickly turned from despair to delight. 

“President Biden’s love of country and loyalty to the American people has been unwavering. He will undoubtedly go down in the history books as a true American patriot,” Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) said in a statement. “I believe Vice President Harris has the experience, energy, and resolve to lead our nation and defeat Donald Trump and his backward agenda.”

But while Democrats sang Biden’s praises after he took himself out of contention, they were preparing to sever public ties with him days earlier. 

Election analyst David Wasserman told the Washington Examiner Democrats had been trying to separate themselves from Biden and Harris in some of the most competitive regions in the country. And that strategy isn’t likely to change unless Harris shows that the energy and excitement she has generated in the early days of her campaign is more than a political sugar high. 

“The big question mark is what she does to Democrats in more blue-collar rural districts where she might be a harder sell,” Wasserman said. “The strategy for Democrats in those places is going to be to continue to cut and run from the top of the ticket. … I suspect that will still be the case if Kamala Harris is the nominee.”

Republicans have scrambled to change their messaging that was centered on attacking Biden to focusing their rhetorical fire on Harris. Shifting their focus to Biden’s No. 2 required some tweaking but allowed them to carry on criticizing the projects and policies of the current administration with a slightly different emphasis. 

A memo circulated by the National Republican Senatorial Committee laid out a clear path for Republicans who don’t appear daunted by the Democratic change in plans. 

“San Francisco radical Kamala Harris is seizing the Democrat nomination from Scranton Joe Biden,” NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman wrote. ”Democrats subverted the democratic process to anoint Kamala Harris with no input from their voters, and Republicans must be ready to shift gears.” 

“Furthermore, Kamala Harris creates a strong downballot opportunity for Republicans. The case against Joe Biden relied in part on the fact that he was mentally unfit to hold office, which was difficult to translate downballot. Kamala Harris owns the Biden Administration’s baggage and is an avowed radical. An endorsement of Kamala Harris is an endorsement of her extreme agenda, and Harris is arguably a bigger threat to Democrats’ Senate majority than Joe Biden.”

A dueling memo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee only hinted at the drama at the top of the ticket, focused on huge cash and polling advantages front-line Democrats have compared to vulnerable Republicans. 

“Despite a volatile month of ever-evolving political news, House Democrats remain well-positioned to win back the majority this fall,” according to the memo. “Thanks to our continued fundraising advantage, the individual strengths of our Frontliners and Red to Blue challengers, and a stark contrast between the forward-looking agenda of House Democrats and MAGA extremism, the DCCC is confident that we will retake the Majority and get the House back to work For the People.”

Swapping candidates has resulted in a surge for Democrats. Harris reported bringing in $100 million in her first 24 hours and signing up 30,000 volunteers for her campaign. The same can’t be said for Republicans, who have been mobilized and energized for months in response to Trump’s legal woes. 

It’s not clear if either peaked too soon or whether Harris will have enough runway to define herself before voters go to the polls in roughly 100 days. 

Democrats feel like they’re back in the game after taking a third-quarter pounding, but it might be too little, too late.