LIBERAL JUDGE SUSAN CRAWFORD WINS WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT RACE

Republicans have now increased their majority from 218 to 220 in the House with state CFO Jimmy Patronis’s victory in Florida’s 1st Congressional District and state Sen. Randy Fine’s win in the 6th District. 

Both seats opened up following the resignations of Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL) and Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who both were tapped to join the Trump Administration, though Gaetz was never confirmed as Trump’s attorney general. The races were initially expected to be easy wins for Republicans, but close polling particularly in the 6th District, eye-popping fundraising, and Democratic enthusiasm in early polling sparked national attention in the closing weeks of the campaign. 

While Democrats were not victorious, many are pointing out that candidates Josh Weil and Gay Valimont were able to shrink Republicans’ margins in red districts by nearly half from races less than five months ago.

Fine downplayed the margin of his victory on Tuesday. He won his race by 14 points, with 99% of precincts reporting. In comparison, Waltz won by more than 30 points in November 2024 and Trump beat then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 30 points in the same district. 

“It’s a special election, you have to look at the turnout, I mean there were twice as many people that voted, I don’t think you could read much into it,” he said, speaking to reporters after his race had been called on Tuesday night. “We’re super excited. It was an incredibly powerful victory, given that many of you said that I was going to lose over the last week, and clearly we showed that there wasn’t any question.”

Patronis won his race by 14.8 points, a significantly smaller margin than Gaetz, who had defeated Valimont by 32 points in November. Trump won the district by 37 points. Valimont appeared to have flipped Escambia County, receiving 51% of the vote.

Vic Baker, a committee member for the Volusia County GOP,  acknowledged the victories were “not a Trump landslide,” but said a win is a win.

“This is pretty decisive. No, it’s not a Trump landslide, but it’s a very clear verdict– that the people of CD 6 and CD 1 want a Republican sitting in this seat, and we are very happy that voters are wise and figured this out,” he said.

However, the races could offer warning signs for GOP incumbents in battleground seats seeking reelection next year. Narrower margins in deep-red Florida districts could signal a challenging midterm environment if Democrats maintain their enthusiasm and fundraising in opposing Trump, Elon Musk, and the Republican agenda.

Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist based in Florida, said the results offer lessons for their side ahead of 2026.

“There are a lot of low propensity voters in today’s Trump GOP, meaning these voters only turn out in droves when Trump’s name is at the top of the ballot,” O’Connell said. 

“Republicans have to make sure before the 2026 midterms that these same voters understand it’s all hands on deck all the time at the ballot box and MAGA voters would be wise to vote early rather than just on Election Day.”

Democrats in Florida have faced a series of statewide defeats in recent years, and while they were never predicting outright wins in such Republican-leaning districts, they are making the case that Democrats overperforming in such red-leaning districts helps lay the foundation for the party’s success in the 2026 midterm election. 

“It’s a 15-point swing in a safe district toward the other party and Democrats have not done well in either of these districts for many, many, many years and they just cut the Republican winning margin in half, so that says something,” said Jon Reinish, a prominent Democratic strategist. 

Democrats in Washington have struggled to find their footing in the early days of the second Trump administration. Narrowing the margins in districts the president won by more than 30 points back in November could boost morale as party leadership navigates how to respond after Republicans swept both houses of Congress and the presidency in November. 

JIMMY PATRONIS WINS FLORIDA HOUSE SEAT VACATED BY MATT GAETZ IN SECOND GOP VICTORY

The House Majority PAC, which is focused on elected Democrats, said Tuesday’s results reveal that “the political headwinds are firmly at our backs heading into 2026.”

“If you apply tonight’s overperformance in FL-01 and FL-06 across the House battlefield in 2026, Democrats would be on track to flip over 40 seats,” the group said in a memo on Tuesday night.

In Wisconsin, liberal Judge Susan Crawford won the race for a seat on the Supreme Court on Tuesday, a major win for Democrats who had framed the race as a referendum on Musk’s popularity. 

Musk and associated groups spent over $20 million to boost Brad Schimel, a former Republican attorney general and conservative judge from Waukesha County. The billionaire employed some of the same strategies he used last fall to support Trump’s victory, such as giving $100 to individuals who signed a petition against “activist judges” and offering $1 million checks to voters.

Norman Stonestreet, who attended a Schimel campaign event in Waukesha County Thursday, told the Washington Examiner he was on board with Trump but not Musk.

“He’s a little out there, isn’t he?” he said. “I am behind President Trump and Brad Schimel but I’m on the fence about Elon Musk,” he said.

Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, a progressive organizing group, said Musk failed to secure a conservative majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court even after dumping millions into the race.

“This race will be viewed as a critical referendum on Trump and Musk’s dangerous, lawless agenda. But it also stands as a stark warning about the deep corruption within our broken campaign finance system,” he said.

RANDY FINE CALMS GOP NERVES AND WINS FLORIDA SPECIAL ELECTION TO REPLACE WALTZ

A new AP-NORC survey suggests Musk could be a drag on Republicans. The billionaire has received lower favorability ratings than Trump with both independents and Republicans. Some GOP lawmakers privately have been skittish over Musk and Trump’s rapid upending of the federal workforce, a jittery stock market, and other significant government changes, and viewed this election as an early opportunity to gauge public sentiment on his administration. 

“I frankly think we need to kick Elon to the curb, and I see tonight’s results as further evidence of that fact,” said a GOP Senate aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Why are we all so afraid of him? Tonight proved all the money in the world doesn’t buy you victory.” 

Barnini Chakraborty contributed to this report.