A pair of seats in the state legislature in the northern Virginia county, one in the state Senate and one in the House of Delegates, could affect the 51-49 Democratic majority in the state House or the 21-19 Democratic majority in the state Senate. The race for House District 26 is between Democrat JJ Singh and Republican Ram Venkatachalam, while the race for Senate District 32 is between Democrat Kannan Srinivasan and Republican Tumay Harding.

In 2023, Democrats won both seats that are up for election by roughly 21 percentage points, but with the timing of the special elections and trends of the area shifting more to the Right, Democrats are playing it safe with the races.

The Democratic Party’s state legislative campaign arm has invested $100,000 into the campaign to hold the seats, calling them “must-win” races.

“The stakes couldn’t be higher as we approach the first special elections of 2025,” Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams said in a statement about the investment. “We must preserve our majorities to lead the upcoming legislative agenda and position Democrats for success heading into November’s elections.

“We know the importance of early investments in laying the foundation for success, which is why we’re building the infrastructure now – not next year – for Democratic power in Virginia,” Williams added.

Vice President Kamala Harris won Loudoun County over President-elect Donald Trump in last year’s presidential election, 56.3%-40.1%, but the margin was a shift toward Trump of nearly 9 percentage points from 2020. The county had shifted Democratic in recent decades, but with Trump’s 2024 performance and Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R-VA) key overperformance in the county in his 2021 gubernatorial election, the tide could be turning on it remaining a blue stronghold in the coming years.

Another factor that could affect the results in Tuesday’s elections is the winter weather that has battered northern Virginia. Monday brought several inches of snow, effectively shutting down much of the area, and while skies are clear on Tuesday, clean-up and cold temperatures have kept some places such as schools closed. Polling places are still operating as normal, including polling places at schools.

In addition to the two Democratic seats being contested in Tuesday’s special elections, another state Senate seat further south is being contested. Republicans are expected to hold on to Senate District 10, a heavily Republican district. The seat is vacant after former state Sen. John McGuire’s ascension to Congress.

Virginia will hold full elections for the state House, governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general in November. The elections are expected to be closely watched as Republicans seek to hold control of several statewide elected offices.