Dems Keep Hoping Their Midterm Chances Are Getting Better. Election Forecasters Say They’re Wrong.

Republicans’ odds of winning the House in this year’s midterm elections look “as robust as ever,” the nonpartisan Cook Political Report wrote Thursday after it shifted 10 more races in the party’s favor.

“Inflation has become such a dominant concern that neither a Supreme Court ruling on Roe v. Wade nor January 6 hearings are likely to dramatically alter the midterms’ trajectory,” analyst David Wasserman wrote. Democrats were hoping the leaked draft of a Supreme Court decision that overturns Roe v. Wade would improve their dismal prospects in the midterms.

Those Democrats are wrong, the election handicapper found. Wasserman changed the report’s forecast in three congressional districts—Pennsylvania’s 10th and 1st and Minnesota’s 1st—to “Solid Republican.” He shifted the forecast in Pennsylvania’s seventh from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.” He also changed the races in Arizona’s 4th district, California’s 49th district, and Connecticut’s 2nd and 5th districts from “Solid Democrat” or “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.” And he changed the forecast for the races in Nevada’s first district and Oregon’s fifth district to “Toss Up.”

By contrast, Democratic prospects improved in just two districts, California’s 40th and Illinois’s 14th.

The Cook Political Report expects Republicans to pick up “between 20 and 35 seats,” Wasserman wrote, enough for the GOP to retake the House.

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